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Topic: "It's Global Warming, Stupid", Re: Storms, sez Bloomberg Business Week< Next Oldest | Next Newest >
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PostIcon Posted on: Nov. 01 2012, 3:29 pm  Skip to the next post in this topic. Ignore posts   QUOTE

Yes, the media went there. :p  Partially, anyway.

Interesting story today on the front cover of Bloomberg Businessweek.  It stops short of directly attributing hurricane Sandy to climate change (they begin the article making that distinction), but it definitely does bring climate change into the direct limelight, with the deep fresh scar of Hurricane Sandy as a backdrop.

Anyhoo, the first couple paragraphs of the story, with the rest in the link.  Read the article, and add your thoughts below.

"It's Global Warming, Stupid"

QUOTE
Yes, yes, it’s unsophisticated to blame any given storm on climate change. Men and women in white lab coats tell us—and they’re right—that many factors contribute to each severe weather episode. Climate deniers exploit scientific complexity to avoid any discussion at all.

Clarity, however, is not beyond reach. Hurricane Sandy demands it: At least 40 U.S. deaths. Economic losses expected to climb as high as $50 billion. Eight million homes without power. Hundreds of thousands of people evacuated. More than 15,000 flights grounded. Factories, stores, and hospitals shut. Lower Manhattan dark, silent, and underwater.

An unscientific survey of the social networking literature on Sandy reveals an illuminating tweet (you read that correctly) from Jonathan Foley, director of the Institute on the Environment at the University of Minnesota. On Oct. 29, Foley thumbed thusly: “Would this kind of storm happen without climate change? Yes. Fueled by many factors. Is storm stronger because of climate change? Yes.” Eric Pooley, senior vice president of the Environmental Defense Fund (and former deputy editor of Bloomberg Businessweek), offers a baseball analogy: “We can’t say that steroids caused any one home run by Barry Bonds, but steroids sure helped him hit more and hit them farther. Now we have weather on steroids.”

....

rest of the story

Is this an election changer?


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PostIcon Posted on: Nov. 01 2012, 3:36 pm Skip to the previous post in this topic. Skip to the next post in this topic. Ignore posts   QUOTE

If Virginia and the other Atlantic Coast states are paying much attention to New Jersey it may well be: President Obama's efforts and Governor Christie's well publicized approval of them puts Romney's "you're on your own" anything else would be immoral since we've a debt to pay down (or more accurately use to buy trillions in weapons) in a VERY harsh light.

Thing is as a research biologist (white coat and all, :) )while I'm uncomfortable attributing a single event as "proof" of whatever, it is true that when I examine a data set there does come an event where I'll go: "okay, that's a confirmation of the trend, now I'm convinced"... In the governor of Rhode Island's phrasing, maybe for many this '100 year flood three years in a  row' is that sort of tipping point at the end of the larger set of data.
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PostIcon Posted on: Nov. 01 2012, 3:37 pm Skip to the previous post in this topic. Skip to the next post in this topic. Ignore posts   QUOTE

I've always wondered how we would/could possibly deny Jesus' words when he spoke (paraphrased) that in the latter days, just before His return, the weather would be like birthing pains. Ever increasing in magnitude until His return.

Well, here we have it. Climate Change!

How foolish we are.


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PostIcon Posted on: Nov. 01 2012, 3:39 pm Skip to the previous post in this topic. Skip to the next post in this topic. Ignore posts   QUOTE

Just make sure you don't work on a sabbath there N.

With all that rainfall? Lots of stones uncovered....
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PostIcon Posted on: Nov. 01 2012, 3:50 pm Skip to the previous post in this topic. Skip to the next post in this topic. Ignore posts   QUOTE


(N2theWild @ Nov. 01 2012, 1:37 pm)
QUOTE
I've always wondered how we would/could possibly deny Jesus' words when he spoke (paraphrased) that in the latter days, just before His return, the weather would be like birthing pains. Ever increasing in magnitude until His return.

Well, here we have it. Climate Change!

How foolish we are.

Jesus did it.  Gotcha.  Thumbs up.

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PostIcon Posted on: Nov. 01 2012, 3:53 pm Skip to the previous post in this topic. Skip to the next post in this topic. Ignore posts   QUOTE

A Cat 1 Hurricane is "weather on steroids"? The only difference between this storm and many, many others is the fact that it interacted with strong Autumn cold front, made landfall near several population centers, had a surge that coincided with a full moon tide. If it had steered away from the coast, no one would ever remember the name "Sandy".

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PostIcon Posted on: Nov. 01 2012, 4:00 pm Skip to the previous post in this topic. Skip to the next post in this topic. Ignore posts   QUOTE

LOL. Excellent point WWBF.

I suppose the full moon was a result of climate change as well.


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PostIcon Posted on: Nov. 01 2012, 4:06 pm Skip to the previous post in this topic. Skip to the next post in this topic. Ignore posts   QUOTE


(WalksWithBlackflies @ Nov. 01 2012, 3:53 pm)
QUOTE
A Cat 1 Hurricane is "weather on steroids"? The only difference between this storm and many, many others is the fact that it interacted with strong Autumn cold front, made landfall near several population centers, had a surge that coincided with a full moon tide. If it had steered away from the coast, no one would ever remember the name "Sandy".

I think that baseball analogy works really well.

The way I read that was that it's not that Sandy, a Cat 1 hurricane, was a singular indicator of "weather on steroids", but that collectively our weather has been trending towards the extreme.

Yes there were several factors that made Sandy an extraordinary event, but if taken collectively with the last decade of comparatively more extreme weather, taken together with evidence of glacier melt, is surely an indicator that something is going on here.


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PostIcon Posted on: Nov. 01 2012, 4:06 pm Skip to the previous post in this topic. Skip to the next post in this topic. Ignore posts   QUOTE


(WalksWithBlackflies @ Nov. 01 2012, 1:53 pm)
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A Cat 1 Hurricane is "weather on steroids"? The only difference between this storm and many, many others is the fact that it interacted with strong Autumn cold front, made landfall near several population centers, had a surge that coincided with a full moon tide. If it had steered away from the coast, no one would ever remember the name "Sandy".

You ignored the point of the article, and instead decided it was just about this particular storm.  Didja read it?

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PostIcon Posted on: Nov. 01 2012, 4:16 pm Skip to the previous post in this topic. Skip to the next post in this topic. Ignore posts   QUOTE

I was only interested in reading this thread because it was posted by someone that I KNOW doesn't believe that singular events are directly attributable to a trend.  That being said, I think what governor Christie has had to say regarding the President's handling of the disaster, it's entirely likely that people (whoever the hell they are) that haven't decided yet will be moved in the direction of voting for Obama.  If they aren't, they could hardly be called "undecided."  For Christie to speak so glowingly of someone he had been so critical of, specifically his leadership skills, says a great deal about both men.  Christie is willing to change direction given a new set of facts, and Obama is the leader Christie had assumed he was incapable of being.

As for N2, congratulations on being the 1 billionth Christian to identify their era as the beginning of the end times.  There's a toaster oven in the mail for you.


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PostIcon Posted on: Nov. 01 2012, 4:21 pm Skip to the previous post in this topic. Skip to the next post in this topic. Ignore posts   QUOTE


(muttpacker @ Nov. 01 2012, 4:16 pm)
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As for N2, congratulations on being the 1 billionth Christian to identify their era as the beginning of the end times.  There's a toaster oven in the mail for you.

If you reread my post, you'll notice I did not say this is the beginning of the end times.

I said this is how people will justify what Jesus said was coming. (When that time comes)


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PostIcon Posted on: Nov. 01 2012, 4:40 pm Skip to the previous post in this topic. Skip to the next post in this topic. Ignore posts   QUOTE


(muttpacker @ Nov. 01 2012, 2:16 pm)
QUOTE
I was only interested in reading this thread because it was posted by someone that I KNOW doesn't believe that singular events are directly attributable to a trend.  That being said, I think what governor Christie has had to say regarding the President's handling of the disaster, it's entirely likely that people (whoever the hell they are) that haven't decided yet will be moved in the direction of voting for Obama.  If they aren't, they could hardly be called "undecided."  For Christie to speak so glowingly of someone he had been so critical of, specifically his leadership skills, says a great deal about both men.  Christie is willing to change direction given a new set of facts, and Obama is the leader Christie had assumed he was incapable of being.

As for N2, congratulations on being the 1 billionth Christian to identify their era as the beginning of the end times.  There's a toaster oven in the mail for you.

Honestly, I'm personally reluctant to necessarily agree with everything posted in the article.  I think even the trends are a heckuva lot more complicated and difficult to pin down than the summaries in the article make it sound.  I don't think WWBF's misgivings are entirely wrong, although I do think he jumped to the conclusion pretty quickly without reading the article.

I was more interested in the political ramifications of this.  An event like this suddenly puts talk about climate change in the forefront, in an election year where it went entirely (and purposefully) unaddressed by both campaigns, in lieu of the economy.  Suddeny many folks realize that climate is an economic issue, in very real and tangible ways.  The connection to Sandy-like events is being made, in articles like the above, whether it should be so strongly or not.  I'm curious about what the campaigns' reactions to this might be, and what (if anything) it might change in the coming few days before the election.  It may not make a difference.  Or it might.  Hence why the thread is posted here.


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PostIcon Posted on: Nov. 01 2012, 4:45 pm Skip to the previous post in this topic. Skip to the next post in this topic. Ignore posts   QUOTE

Since the areas hit are all pretty much Blue States, I doubt it will have much of an effect on the election.

However, articles similar to this shoving the climate change agenda down people's throats with scare tactics could sway people away from the liberal side of things.


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PostIcon Posted on: Nov. 01 2012, 4:47 pm Skip to the previous post in this topic. Skip to the next post in this topic. Ignore posts   QUOTE

"shoving the climate change agenda down people's throats"

Good grief you're dense.  You make a living out of it.


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PostIcon Posted on: Nov. 01 2012, 5:00 pm Skip to the previous post in this topic. Skip to the next post in this topic. Ignore posts   QUOTE

QUOTE
I was more interested in the political ramifications of this.
My take on Sandy as well...it will be years before we know for sure what the overall impact of global warming was on this particular storm. Still, climatologists point out that the western Atlantic was a few degrees warmer than it would have been w/o AGW, and that probably had an effect.

QUOTE
"shoving the climate change agenda down people's throats"

Good grief you're dense.  You make a living out of it.

I guess that's why we've been saying for some months now: "Please don't feed the troll." Here's a guy who has the audacity to make that above remark about AGW, while constantly and repeatedly invoking Jesus and religion in debates about science. Go figure. I'm sure he doesn't see the irony in that.
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PostIcon Posted on: Nov. 01 2012, 5:09 pm Skip to the previous post in this topic. Skip to the next post in this topic. Ignore posts   QUOTE

I have my religion, you have yours it would appear.

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PostIcon Posted on: Nov. 01 2012, 5:11 pm Skip to the previous post in this topic. Skip to the next post in this topic. Ignore posts   QUOTE


(N2theWild @ Nov. 01 2012, 4:09 pm)
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I have my religion, you have yours it would appear.

My religion has a large body of scientific research to bolster its claims.

Your religion got nada.
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PostIcon Posted on: Nov. 01 2012, 5:12 pm Skip to the previous post in this topic. Skip to the next post in this topic. Ignore posts   QUOTE

I find the whole discussion on climate change to be amusing. Of course climate changes. Whether you look at the billions of years of history of the planet or just want to fixate on a smaller fraction, you'll always see some variation.

Hiking the Grand Canyon you go back about 2 billion years and a couple hundred thousand years are missing at the Great Uncomformity. Colorado was once flat amd underwater.

A little rain in NY and it's an epidemic!!! Get real. The earth experienced numerous catastrophic events long before man arrived and it will continue long after we're gone.  Believe what you want...I believe I'll have another beer.


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PostIcon Posted on: Nov. 01 2012, 5:18 pm Skip to the previous post in this topic. Skip to the next post in this topic. Ignore posts   QUOTE


(bill g @ Nov. 01 2012, 4:12 pm)
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I find the whole discussion on climate change to be amusing. Of course climate changes. Whether you look at the billions of years of history of the planet or just want to fixate on a smaller fraction, you'll always see some variation.

Hiking the Grand Canyon you go back about 2 billion years and a couple hundred thousand years are missing at the Great Uncomformity. Colorado was once flat amd underwater.

A little rain in NY and it's an epidemic!!! Get real. The earth experienced numerous catastrophic events long before man arrived and it will continue long after we're gone.  Believe what you want...I believe I'll have another beer.

You guys are idiots, and you most certainly did not read that article.

Ocean levels are rising.
Ocean temperature is rising.
Arctic ice is receding, changing weather patterns.

The fact that all of the above coincided "accidentally" should be of some significance all by itself. But, I suppose, not to the brainless.

No one said, "Sandy was caused by global warming." But given all of the above irrefutable facts about the circumstances, wouldn't that, at the very least, seem curious? Suspicious? Interesting?

Nah, you'll just go have another beer. Idiots!

For you guys, this is the most important quote from that article, and it's right there in the first paragraph:
"Climate deniers exploit scientific complexity to avoid any discussion at all."
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PostIcon Posted on: Nov. 01 2012, 5:20 pm Skip to the previous post in this topic. Skip to the next post in this topic. Ignore posts   QUOTE


(bill g @ Nov. 01 2012, 5:12 pm)
QUOTE
I find the whole discussion on climate change to be amusing. Of course climate changes. Whether you look at the billions of years of history of the planet or just want to fixate on a smaller fraction, you'll always see some variation.

Hiking the Grand Canyon you go back about 2 billion years and a couple hundred thousand years are missing at the Great Uncomformity. Colorado was once flat amd underwater.

A little rain in NY and it's an epidemic!!! Get real. The earth experienced numerous catastrophic events long before man arrived and it will continue long after we're gone.  Believe what you want...I believe I'll have another beer.

"A little rain". Check. Gotcha.
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PostIcon Posted on: Nov. 01 2012, 5:25 pm Skip to the previous post in this topic. Skip to the next post in this topic. Ignore posts   QUOTE

CO2 gets released into space due to a saturation limit.

Yes, the planet is warming.

And it will cool again. And will warm again. And will cool again. And wil....

Face it, you guys are alarmists. Those people you love to ridicule when they have agendas you are not aligned with.


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PostIcon Posted on: Nov. 01 2012, 5:29 pm Skip to the previous post in this topic. Skip to the next post in this topic. Ignore posts   QUOTE


(Panhandler @ Nov. 01 2012, 2:20 pm)
QUOTE

(bill g @ Nov. 01 2012, 5:12 pm)
QUOTE
I find the whole discussion on climate change to be amusing. Of course climate changes. Whether you look at the billions of years of history of the planet or just want to fixate on a smaller fraction, you'll always see some variation.

Hiking the Grand Canyon you go back about 2 billion years and a couple hundred thousand years are missing at the Great Uncomformity. Colorado was once flat amd underwater.

A little rain in NY and it's an epidemic!!! Get real. The earth experienced numerous catastrophic events long before man arrived and it will continue long after we're gone.  Believe what you want...I believe I'll have another beer.

"A little rain". Check. Gotcha.

"Hiking the Grand Canyon" in a full down mountaineering suit?

If not why not?

Anything to do with insulation having an actual, real world, result?

Much, then, I would suggest, like the insulating gas Carbon Dioxide:

Or, I was cold six months ago so I'd better bunny up for that summer hike down the canyon?...

Oh and regarding humans? The Keeling measurements record an increase that's equal to half the total global human CO2 production. So the arithmetic says it's our additional CO2 that's the source of the rise. Solar cycles and such aren't under our control: production of our CO2 is, so to the extent related changes to our environment such as sea ice melting> Arctic Ocean warming > weakening Jetstream > hurricanes turn West rather than east or sea ice melting > Arctic Ocean warming > Greenland Ice melts and adds to oceanic sea level rise > adds water level rise to reduce the safety factor along our coastline between out infrastructure and the storm surges that even if of previous heights, would now be more threatening, both of which look relevant to the recent Sandy event, then these are consequences it is worth looking at. As Gov. Cuomo said, previous infrastructure design assumptions may not be currently appropriate.
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PostIcon Posted on: Nov. 01 2012, 5:32 pm Skip to the previous post in this topic. Skip to the next post in this topic. Ignore posts   QUOTE

The point so many fail to understand is that NOW when climate is changing HUMANS are around and we have TONS of stuff that will get messed up by these changes.

Of course things change, no one disagrees about that.  Now when things change however we have hundreds of millions of people, places, and things that get messed up.

THAT is what is different this time.  The earth will be fine no matter what people do.  But what people do will affect what happens to those same people!

Some will never agree no matter what.  There is absolutely NOTHING that would convince them it is happening, unless of course jesus stopped by and told them it was happening.  And even then some would still not believe even him!!!!
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(Gabby @ Nov. 01 2012, 3:18 pm)
QUOTE
For you guys, this is the most important quote from that article, and it's right there in the first paragraph:
"Climate deniers exploit scientific complexity to avoid any discussion at all."

Bingo.

And I keep having to remind myself, arguing with trolls like N2 really serves no purpose at all.  N2 isn't really a person speaking, it's just a person playing a caricature.  A caricature that in the same thread argues "Jesus predicted weather changes like this as a sign of end times" and then immediately afterward exlaims it's all just bunk, nothing is happening and it's an "agenda shoved down our throats."  Anyone can see those two simultaneous arguments contradict each other.  There's no belief system behind them... it's just a troll throwing around whatever bumper stickers might derail any intelligent conversation.

It's all trolls do.  There's no actual thought process happening there worthy of debate.


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PostIcon Posted on: Nov. 01 2012, 6:51 pm Skip to the previous post in this topic. Skip to the next post in this topic. Ignore posts   QUOTE

Well put, geo.  I was just about to make that very point, again (I recognize that's not likely the first time you've had to mention that to someone, either).  

The kicker is the economic impact that blue alluded to: it's much easier and cheaper to deal with issues before they become problems.  

Let's assume that the deniers who say humans have no impact are correct (it makes me lose IQ points just typing it) and nothing we do will slow the warming.  Is there no course of action, that might even create jobs, that might slow, or even lessen, the impact of the warming climate?  Won't we have astronomical infrastructure expenditures that would be better dealt with by starting to deal with them now?

And, if you really want this country to be energy independent we need to start spending significant money on alternative energy.  Drilling for more of something that we pay international market prices for anyway doesn't save us anything, and it only continues to slow down the markets we most need to grow.  If there's something the federal government could do to make home wind turbines cost effective, why shouldn't it?  Or solar panels?  Or geothermal?

The ones that are the least likely to be willing to pay now are the ones that will cost us all the most later.


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(GoBlueHiker @ Nov. 01 2012, 4:06 pm)
QUOTE

(WalksWithBlackflies @ Nov. 01 2012, 1:53 pm)
QUOTE
A Cat 1 Hurricane is "weather on steroids"? The only difference between this storm and many, many others is the fact that it interacted with strong Autumn cold front, made landfall near several population centers, had a surge that coincided with a full moon tide. If it had steered away from the coast, no one would ever remember the name "Sandy".

You ignored the point of the article, and instead decided it was just about this particular storm.  Didja read it?

To be fair, you youself said "Is this an election changer", and by "this" I assume you mean Sandy.

But yes, I understand that the quoted scientists weren't saying that global warming caused Sandy... merely enhanced it. However, Mr. Pooley stated we are witnessing weather on steroids, using Barry Bond's home runs as an analogy. Surely he was counting Sandy as a "home run". He was also using it as an example of the effect of "steroids". I'm saying that if Sandy had veered right, he wouldn't have counted it as a "home run".

There were no Class 4 or 5 Atlantic storms this year. Only one Class 3 storm, Michael, and that only lasted 12 hours. The Pacific had an "average" year. Obviously, that is only one year, but that data set surely isn't indicative of weather on steroids.

It seems to me that every time a weather event happens, global warming believers state that is either directly due to or the effect of, global warming. And they always have some scientists backing them up. But there have ALWAYS been extreme tornadoes. There have ALWAYS been extreme hurricanes. There has ALWAYS been extreme cold... severe heat... droughts... deluges. We only have around 100 years of detailed records, and we're trying to extrapolate it to "geological" time. When 100-year storms hit with irregular frequency, we say weather is becoming more extreme. But I haven't heard that maybe, just maybe, the "100-year" classificaiton is what is in error.

It kinda reminds me of the Lance Armstrong allegations... a whole lotta of conjucture and circumstantial evidence... but the media, climate change believers, and some climate scientists* (like the USADA) are reporting the indirect evidence as proof. And I find myself siding with the deniers.

* = at least the ones getting the media play


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PostIcon Posted on: Nov. 01 2012, 8:56 pm Skip to the previous post in this topic. Skip to the next post in this topic. Ignore posts   QUOTE

I'm sorry.  I guess I missed the part where the "global warming" only affects the United States and hurricanes.  I feel so stupid.  Why hasn't the liberal media made that point more clearly?

And this gem: "When 100-year storms hit with irregular frequency, we say weather is becoming more extreme. But I haven't heard that maybe, just maybe, the "100-year" classification is what is in error."  Why that deserves it's very own classification.  "If only we would look at the 3 biggest storms over 4 or 5 hundred years and called THOSE 100 year storms, this wouldn't be happening."

I'm utterly without utters.


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PostIcon Posted on: Nov. 01 2012, 9:03 pm Skip to the previous post in this topic. Skip to the next post in this topic. Ignore posts   QUOTE

A particularly illuminating video:
"NOAA Tracks Arctic-Tropic Clash of Sandy and Cold Front"



QUOTE
Unprecedented late October storm track from Hurricane Sandy this week
Only the 2nd Hurricane to ever hit New Jersey
"Blocking pattern" steered Sandy in unusual NW direction into Jersey Shore
Warmer arctic linked to more frequent jet stream blocking patterns
Record Arctic Sea Ice loss in 2012 may have enhanced blocking pattern this fall
Warmer waters caused Sandy's "intensity flare" just before landfall

We've just witnessed a massive hurricane that did something no other tropical system has done in the past - Make a sharp left turn in the Atlantic and plow headfirst into New Jersey & New York in late October.

Here's why Sandy's track was unprecedented for a hurricane this late in the tropical season.

-Late October jet streams are usually well established far enough south that any northward moving Atlantic hurricanes are pushed eastward into the Atlantic by fast moving jet stream winds before they reach the East Coast.

-According to Jeff Masters of WxUndeground, Sandy is just the 2nd hurricane to ever hit the relatively protected (recessed) Jersey Coast. The only other hurricane to hit New Jersey was the "Vagabond Hurricane" in 1903, and that one hit in September when the jet stream is usually further north.

For nearly 2 weeks now I've talked and written about the unusual jet stream pattern that "sucked" sandy back to the NW and into the Jersey Shore.

In weather geek speak we call these highly amplified jet stream patterns "blocking patterns" because they force the jet stream to meander into big north-south kinks and loops...instead of flowing more rapidly from west to east.

Blocking patterns have always formed in certain seasons, but tend to become less common in fall...only about 2% of the time vs. 6% in winter & spring.

There is a growing body of evidence that blocking patterns may be increasing as the Arctic warms. The blocking pattern this week over Greenland, combined with a "negatively tilted" (backwards leaning) low pressure trough over the eastern USA sucked Sandy back to the NW at the last minute into New Jersey, instead of shoving her out to sea.
...<and more that I suspect most won't read if I don't post it>


Sandy wasn't "created by AGW", but there are a lot of "coincidental" contributing factors here, not all of which can be fully documented as effective without further, much more rigorous and time-consuming research. And probably more storms.

All of the above can be found at:
"Did record Arctic Sea ice loss help steer Sandy to Jersey Coast?"
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PostIcon Posted on: Nov. 01 2012, 9:10 pm Skip to the previous post in this topic. Skip to the next post in this topic. Ignore posts   QUOTE

IIRC there's a paper from this past Spring speculating on that effect from Arctic ice reductions. Way before Sandy, obviously. .

From the researcher's work mentioned here:
http://blogs.kqed.org/climate....e-20922

The only copy of his paper I could find so far is behind a pay wall , here's the free abstract.
http://www.agu.org/pubs/crossref/2012/2012GL051000.shtml
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PostIcon Posted on: Nov. 01 2012, 9:11 pm Skip to the previous post in this topic.  Ignore posts   QUOTE

Bloomberg endorses Obama, citing science and GW

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