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Dennis The Menace 
Group: Members
Posts: 8461
Joined: Apr. 2007
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Posted on: Jan. 04 2013, 1:35 pm |
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In 1992, there were 103 members of the House of Representatives elected from what might be
called swing districts: those in which the margin in the presidential race was within five
percentage points of the national result. But based on an analysis of this year’s
presidential returns, I estimate that there are only 35 such Congressional districts
remaining, barely a third of the total 20 years ago.
Instead, the number of landslide districts — those in which the presidential vote margin
deviated by at least 20 percentage points from the national result — has roughly doubled. In
1992, there were 123 such districts (65 of them strongly Democratic and 58 strongly
Republican). Today, there are 242 of them (of these, 117 favor Democrats and 125 Republicans).
So why is compromise so hard in the House? Some commentators, especially liberals, attribute
it to what they say is the irrationality of Republican members of Congress.
But the answer could be this instead: individual members of Congress are responding fairly
rationally to their incentives. Most members of the House now come from hyperpartisan
districts where they face essentially no threat of losing their seat to the other party.
Instead, primary challenges, especially for Republicans, may be the more serious risk.
http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012....e-stand
Of course what Silver describes is most certainly part of the explanation why the
house is so unwilling to compromise but it wouldn't explaining the Senate and its record
filibustering so if the Senate has been acting uber partisan then it safe to say the same
dynamic that has caused the Senate to act uber partisan is also at play in the house.
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if you first punch someone and then that someone punches back and then you complain to
someone else that you were punched, then you're a silly fool
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| Post Number: 2
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wwwest
Group: Members
Posts: 4056
Joined: Dec. 2002
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Posted on: Jan. 04 2013, 2:08 pm |
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Good article. Thanks.
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| Post Number: 3
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buzzards
Group: Members
Posts: 1741
Joined: Apr. 2005
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Posted on: Jan. 04 2013, 2:09 pm |
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I agree that this could be PART of the problem. The 2010 elections had a big effect at the state levels, and many of those newly Republican state legislatures did a bang up job at redistricting to protect GOP seats until the next census in 2020.
Here is another part of the jigsaw puzzle: I think the world views of the left and the right are diverging, so there really is a larger partisan divide, and less common ground.
Instead of a country where opposing viewpoints at least agreed on the same goal, just had different ideas on how to get there, what I see is two very different visions of what our country should be like.
The right is increasingly sectarian, the left seems to be increasingly secular, It's kind of like a generation ago at least they both sat together in a Methodist or Anglican service, but now the right is rabid evangelical Baptists attending a megachurch, and the left won't go near a church except to picket it.
It probably doesn't help that the right and the left rarely live next to each other. The left dominates urban America, the right is mainly suburban and rural. That demographic divide also contributes to what you call landslide districts.
That's not a perfect analogy, but it's what my imperfect perception is of the changes that I have seen over my life.
Of course things change. Until the 70's, Utah was a safe Democratic State, with a high amount of union jobs, and California was a bastion of the Republicans.
And since the docs only give me another year or so, you guys will have to fight it out without me to help. Good luck with that.
--------------
Now shall I walk or shall I ride?
Ride, said pleasure,
Walk, Joy replied,
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| Post Number: 4
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wwwest
Group: Members
Posts: 4056
Joined: Dec. 2002
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Posted on: Jan. 04 2013, 2:26 pm |
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The good news is that demographics are overtaking these manipulations by the state districting powers. We already see some of that in House elections in November where supposedly "safe" Republican districts went Democrat.
In the not very distant future whole states (think Texas and Arizona) are going over the demographic cliff, and many Congressional districts within a lot of other states are doing the same.
So, until the Republicans learn to count, and adjust their policies accordingly, they are going to continue to decline.
Old white men are going to be experiencing exactly what they have been fearing and fighting for the past 30 years.
How long until we have a majority of women in both the House and the Senate, along with a woman in the White House, but as President, not First Lady.
I wonder how Michelle Obama would do in 2016??
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| Post Number: 5
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KenV
Group: Members
Posts: 5544
Joined: Mar. 2002
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Posted on: Jan. 04 2013, 2:29 pm |
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(buzzards @ Jan. 04 2013, 2:09 pm)
QUOTE I agree that this could be PART of the problem. The 2010 elections had a big effect at the state levels, and many of those newly Republican state legislatures did a bang up job at redistricting to protect GOP seats until the next census in 2020.
Here is another part of the jigsaw puzzle: I think the world views of the left and the right are diverging, so there really is a larger partisan divide, and less common ground.
Instead of a country where opposing viewpoints at least agreed on the same goal, just had different ideas on how to get there, what I see is two very different visions of what our country should be like.
The right is increasingly sectarian, the left seems to be increasingly secular, It's kind of like a generation ago at least they both sat together in a Methodist or Anglican service, but now the right is rabid evangelical Baptists attending a megachurch, and the left won't go near a church except to picket it.
It probably doesn't help that the right and the left rarely live next to each other. The left dominates urban America, the right is mainly suburban and rural. That demographic divide also contributes to what you call landslide districts.
That's not a perfect analogy, but it's what my imperfect perception is of the changes that I have seen over my life.
Of course things change. Until the 70's, Utah was a safe Democratic State, with a high amount of union jobs, and California was a bastion of the Republicans.
You made some great points. I largely agree.
QUOTE And since the docs only give me another year or so, you guys will have to fight it out without me to help. Good luck with that. Apparently the "magic underwear" mocked on these pages does not cover your illness. My condolences to you and your family. I wish you the best with your illness and your time remaining. Let me know if there's anything I can do. My prayers are already with you.
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buzzards
Group: Members
Posts: 1741
Joined: Apr. 2005
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Posted on: Jan. 04 2013, 4:35 pm |
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(wwwest @ Jan. 04 2013, 12:26 pm)
QUOTE The good news is that demographics are overtaking these manipulations by the state districting powers. We already see some of that in House elections in November where supposedly "safe" Republican districts went Democrat.
In the not very distant future whole states (think Texas and Arizona) are going over the demographic cliff, and many Congressional districts within a lot of other states are doing the same.
So, until the Republicans learn to count, and adjust their policies accordingly, they are going to continue to decline.
Old white men are going to be experiencing exactly what they have been fearing and fighting for the past 30 years.
How long until we have a majority of women in both the House and the Senate, along with a woman in the White House, but as President, not First Lady.
I wonder how Michelle Obama would do in 2016??
I'm not interested in a fight/argument, but I heard the same themes, just switch the party labels, in 1988, 2004, and even 2010.
Ye olde pendulum doth swing. Both directions.
--------------
Now shall I walk or shall I ride?
Ride, said pleasure,
Walk, Joy replied,
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KenV
Group: Members
Posts: 5544
Joined: Mar. 2002
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Posted on: Jan. 05 2013, 1:43 pm |
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On the subject of "extreme", it would appear that that graph demonstrates that.
In the burbs and rural areas, there's a 60/40 split.
That's pretty moderate.
In the cities there's a 90/10 split.
That's pretty extreme.
Does the "moderate" area tilt toward the Rs or to the Ds?
Does the "extreme" area tilt toward the Rs or to the Ds?
What can we conclude?
What should we conclude?
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| Post Number: 10
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wwwest
Group: Members
Posts: 4056
Joined: Dec. 2002
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Posted on: Jan. 05 2013, 2:28 pm |
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What can we conclude?
What should we conclude?
That if Republicans continue with their current platform and policies, they are SOL, and will become a permanent minority party.
Thanks for the clarification.
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| Post Number: 11
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Dennis The Menace
Group: Members
Posts: 8461
Joined: Apr. 2007
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Posted on: Jan. 05 2013, 2:51 pm |
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So congress has I think its lowest approval rating ever(10%)
here is Ezra Klein's arguments for why he thinks this is the worst congress ever
http://www.bloomberg.com/news....ry.html
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs....ss-ever
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if you first punch someone and then that someone punches back and then you complain to
someone else that you were punched, then you're a silly fool
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Survival Skills 101 • Eat Better
