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Topic: Nate Silver's new stat on Gerrmandering, 1992:103  Today:35< Next Oldest | Next Newest >
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PostIcon Posted on: Jan. 04 2013, 1:35 pm  Skip to the next post in this topic. Ignore posts   QUOTE


In 1992, there were 103 members of the House of Representatives elected from what might be
called swing districts:
those in which the margin in the presidential race was within five
percentage points of the national result. But based on an analysis of this year’s
presidential returns, I estimate that there are only 35 such Congressional districts
remaining, barely a third of the total 20 years ago.


Instead, the number of landslide districts — those in which the presidential vote margin
deviated by at least 20 percentage points from the national result — has roughly doubled. In
1992, there were 123 such districts (65 of them strongly Democratic and 58 strongly
Republican). Today, there are 242 of them (of these, 117 favor Democrats and 125 Republicans).

So why is compromise so hard in the House? Some commentators, especially liberals, attribute
it to what they say is the irrationality of Republican members of Congress.

But the answer could be this instead: individual members of Congress are responding fairly
rationally to their incentives. Most members of the House now come from hyperpartisan
districts where they face essentially no threat of losing their seat to the other party.
Instead, primary challenges, especially for Republicans, may be the more serious risk.


http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012....e-stand

Of course what Silver describes is most certainly part of the explanation why the
house is so unwilling to compromise but it wouldn't explaining the Senate and its record
filibustering so if the Senate has been acting uber partisan then it safe to say the same
dynamic that has caused the Senate to act uber partisan is also at play in the house.


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PostIcon Posted on: Jan. 04 2013, 2:08 pm Skip to the previous post in this topic. Skip to the next post in this topic. Ignore posts   QUOTE

Good article.  Thanks.

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PostIcon Posted on: Jan. 04 2013, 2:09 pm Skip to the previous post in this topic. Skip to the next post in this topic. Ignore posts   QUOTE

I agree that this could be PART of the problem. The 2010 elections had a big effect at the state levels, and many of those newly Republican state legislatures did a bang up job at redistricting to protect GOP seats until the next census in 2020.
Here is another part of the jigsaw puzzle: I think the world views of the left and the right are diverging, so there really is a larger partisan divide, and less common ground.
Instead of a country where opposing viewpoints at least agreed on the same goal, just had different ideas on how to get there, what I see is two very different visions of what our country should be like.
The right is increasingly sectarian, the left seems to be increasingly secular,  It's kind of like a generation ago at least they both sat together in a Methodist or Anglican service, but now the right is rabid evangelical Baptists attending a megachurch, and the left won't go near a church except to picket it.
It probably doesn't help that the right and the left rarely live next to each other. The left dominates urban America, the right is mainly suburban and rural.  That demographic divide also contributes to what you call landslide districts.
That's not a perfect analogy, but it's what my imperfect perception is of the changes that I have seen over my life.
Of course things change. Until the 70's, Utah was a safe Democratic State, with a high amount of union jobs, and California was a bastion of the Republicans.
And since the docs only give me another year or so, you guys will have to fight it out without me to help. Good luck with that.


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PostIcon Posted on: Jan. 04 2013, 2:26 pm Skip to the previous post in this topic. Skip to the next post in this topic. Ignore posts   QUOTE

The good news is that demographics are overtaking these manipulations by the state districting powers.  We already see some of that in House elections in November where supposedly "safe" Republican districts went Democrat.

In the not very distant future whole states (think Texas and Arizona) are going over the demographic cliff, and many Congressional districts within a lot of other states are doing the same.

So, until the Republicans learn to count, and adjust their policies accordingly, they are going to continue to decline.

Old white men are going to be experiencing exactly what they have been fearing and fighting for the past 30 years.

How long until we have a majority of women in both the House and the Senate, along with a woman in the White House, but as President, not First Lady.

I wonder how Michelle Obama would do in 2016??


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PostIcon Posted on: Jan. 04 2013, 2:29 pm Skip to the previous post in this topic. Skip to the next post in this topic. Ignore posts   QUOTE


(buzzards @ Jan. 04 2013, 2:09 pm)
QUOTE
I agree that this could be PART of the problem. The 2010 elections had a big effect at the state levels, and many of those newly Republican state legislatures did a bang up job at redistricting to protect GOP seats until the next census in 2020.
Here is another part of the jigsaw puzzle: I think the world views of the left and the right are diverging, so there really is a larger partisan divide, and less common ground.
Instead of a country where opposing viewpoints at least agreed on the same goal, just had different ideas on how to get there, what I see is two very different visions of what our country should be like.
The right is increasingly sectarian, the left seems to be increasingly secular,  It's kind of like a generation ago at least they both sat together in a Methodist or Anglican service, but now the right is rabid evangelical Baptists attending a megachurch, and the left won't go near a church except to picket it.
It probably doesn't help that the right and the left rarely live next to each other. The left dominates urban America, the right is mainly suburban and rural.  That demographic divide also contributes to what you call landslide districts.
That's not a perfect analogy, but it's what my imperfect perception is of the changes that I have seen over my life.
Of course things change. Until the 70's, Utah was a safe Democratic State, with a high amount of union jobs, and California was a bastion of the Republicans.

You made some great points.  I largely agree.

QUOTE
And since the docs only give me another year or so, you guys will have to fight it out without me to help. Good luck with that.
Apparently the "magic underwear" mocked on these pages does not cover your illness.  My condolences to you and your family.  I wish you the best with your illness and your time remaining.  Let me know if there's anything I can do.  My prayers are already with you.
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PostIcon Posted on: Jan. 04 2013, 2:49 pm Skip to the previous post in this topic. Skip to the next post in this topic. Ignore posts   QUOTE

Here's two articles with a very similar subject:

http://www.usatoday.com/story....1758567

http://www.nytimes.com/2012....ml?_r=0

Looks like partisanship is getting steadily more entrenched.
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PostIcon Posted on: Jan. 04 2013, 4:35 pm Skip to the previous post in this topic. Skip to the next post in this topic. Ignore posts   QUOTE


(wwwest @ Jan. 04 2013, 12:26 pm)
QUOTE
The good news is that demographics are overtaking these manipulations by the state districting powers.  We already see some of that in House elections in November where supposedly "safe" Republican districts went Democrat.

In the not very distant future whole states (think Texas and Arizona) are going over the demographic cliff, and many Congressional districts within a lot of other states are doing the same.

So, until the Republicans learn to count, and adjust their policies accordingly, they are going to continue to decline.

Old white men are going to be experiencing exactly what they have been fearing and fighting for the past 30 years.

How long until we have a majority of women in both the House and the Senate, along with a woman in the White House, but as President, not First Lady.

I wonder how Michelle Obama would do in 2016??

I'm not interested in a fight/argument, but I heard the same themes, just switch the party labels, in 1988, 2004, and even 2010.
Ye olde pendulum doth swing. Both directions.


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PostIcon Posted on: Jan. 04 2013, 4:43 pm Skip to the previous post in this topic. Skip to the next post in this topic. Ignore posts   QUOTE

buzzards said
QUOTE

It probably doesn't help that the right and the left rarely live next to each other. The left
dominates urban America, the right is mainly suburban and rural.  That demographic divide
also contributes to what you call landslide districts.


Check this graph out that illustrates this

From that link on graphs I made on December 31



http://forums.backpacker.com/cgi-bin....1162212

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs....-graphs


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PostIcon Posted on: Jan. 05 2013, 1:43 pm Skip to the previous post in this topic. Skip to the next post in this topic. Ignore posts   QUOTE

On the subject of "extreme", it would appear that that graph demonstrates that.

In the burbs and rural areas, there's a 60/40 split.
That's pretty moderate.

In the cities there's a 90/10 split.
That's pretty extreme.

Does the "moderate" area tilt toward the Rs or to the Ds?

Does the "extreme" area tilt toward the Rs or to the Ds?

What can we conclude?
What should we conclude?
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PostIcon Posted on: Jan. 05 2013, 2:28 pm Skip to the previous post in this topic. Skip to the next post in this topic. Ignore posts   QUOTE

What can we conclude?
What should we conclude?


That if Republicans continue with their current platform and policies, they are SOL, and will become a permanent minority party.

Thanks for the clarification.


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- John Kenneth Galbraith
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PostIcon Posted on: Jan. 05 2013, 2:48 pm Skip to the previous post in this topic. Skip to the next post in this topic. Ignore posts   QUOTE

Buzzard said
QUOTE

I think the world views of the left and the right are diverging, so there really is a larger
partisan divide, and less common ground.


Yes they are diverging but mainly because one(the right) is diverging from the center at
a RAPID pace.  I've posted thes graphs many times before before but I think it illustrates
pretty well that is the Republicans who have become the really extreme party(to tie into Kenv
question about who is being extreme).

First graph from UC San Diego Political Science Professor Keith poole





http://voteview.com/blog/?p=409

The time frame goes back to 1879 so it covers 133 years worth. Notice that right NOW in the
house the red line(for Republicans) is as high as its ever been(that means NOW Republicans
are as right-wing as they ever have been).

Likewise for the bottom graph for the senate the Republicans are about as right-wing as
they have ever been(looks like a tad bit more right-wing than they were in the early 1920's
but its close).

Democrats on the other hand are NOT as left-wing as they have ever been. Granted in the house
there has been a move to the left but still doesn't even come close to where the Republicans
are in terms of being from the center(dems about .4 from the center where as Republicans are
past .6 from the center).

Then we have this graph that just focuses on votes since 1984(from Nate Silver Again)

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2011....promise





As you can see not only(now) do Democrats have far more moderates than Republicans do
but Democrats have more conservatives than Republicans have liberals and most importantly
Democrats still(despite the shift) have more moderates than liberals.

I mean is there any serious debate about which of the two parties is more extreme by now?
I mean by now isn't it plainly obvious which one is more extreme? How could there really
be much debate about this assuming people are sufficiently informed?


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PostIcon Posted on: Jan. 05 2013, 2:51 pm Skip to the previous post in this topic.  Ignore posts   QUOTE

So congress has I think its lowest approval rating ever(10%)

here is Ezra Klein's arguments for why he thinks this is the worst congress ever

http://www.bloomberg.com/news....ry.html
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs....ss-ever


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