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Topic: New Climate Change Report, Draft National Climate Assessment< Next Oldest | Next Newest >
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PostIcon Posted on: Jan. 22 2013, 9:17 am  Skip to the next post in this topic. Ignore posts   QUOTE

Draft NCA from the National Climate Assessment Development Advisory Committee

Conclusions are what you'd expect. Summarized:

The 1,000-page report, the work of the more than 300 government scientists and outside experts, was unequivocal on the human causes of climate change, and on the links between climate change and extreme weather.

"Climate change is already affecting the American people," the draft report said. "Certain types of weather events have become more frequent and/or intense including heat waves, heavy downpours and in some regions floods and drought. Sea level is rising, oceans are becoming more acidic, and glaciers and Arctic sea ice are melting."
Some of those changes are already evident: 2012 was by far the hottest year on record, fully a degree hotter than the last such record – an off-the-charts rate of increase.

Those high temperatures were on course to continue for the rest of the century, the draft report said. It noted that average US temperatures had increased by about 1.5F since 1895, with more than 80% of this increase since 1980.

The rise will be even steeper in future, with the next few decades projected for temperatures 2 to 4 degrees warmer in most areas. By 2100, if climate change continues on its present course, the country can expect to see 25 days a year with temperatures above 100F


http://www.guardian.co.uk/environ....4333117

NCADAC page with a link to the actual report: http://ncadac.globalchange.gov/

ETA: The report said nothing about assault rifles.


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PostIcon Posted on: Jan. 22 2013, 10:36 am Skip to the previous post in this topic. Skip to the next post in this topic. Ignore posts   QUOTE


(WalksWithBlackflies @ Jan. 22 2013, 7:17 am)
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ETA: The report said nothing about assault rifles.

Way to kill the thread, man. :p

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PostIcon Posted on: Jan. 22 2013, 10:40 am Skip to the previous post in this topic. Skip to the next post in this topic. Ignore posts   QUOTE

Reservoir levels are trending lower here out West.  Salt Lake City's Deseret News had a thinly veiled op-ed eyeing pipelining Mississippi River water to replace the Colorado River.  However, the Corps of Engineers is now digging bedrock to keep the Mississippi navigable in some places, so now the Mississippi River folks are eyeing the (protected) Missouri River.  Down here, the reservoir water usually goes to the farmers; if there is none, they get an allotment of groundwater that residential users depend on leading to overdraft.  Groundwater is ultimately recharged by surface water however, so it can become a long term problem (don't worry residents of the east -- there won't be caravans of western refugees in pick-up trucks with Denver Bronco or Dallas Cowboy posters -- it will be more gradual).  

If the warming trend doesn't break, think we will see water fights between states and even individuals. Having lived in the desert for about 25 years, I can tell you how both go:

When city water reached some rural areas, residents had to leave one occupant at home since neighbors with trucked in water would break into an unoccupied home and steal running water.  Buckets, hoses, you name it.  Even if you have running water, if your neighbors don't .. there goes the neighborhood.

On a bigger scale, some retirees  I know looked at an Arizona retirement community with floorplans at 400K.  The main reason they went somewhere else (same developer, different state) was putting that much money into a place that could have drought problems in the future.  Drove by a couple weeks ago, they are selling now at 100k. A part is the mortgage meltdown but I think another is most retirees not wanting to take drought risk.

Getting into the mountains, I have seen thriving municipalities next to govt/military facilities (a constant source of $$)  have a well run dry.  Being close to a city, the city dug a water pipe to them but it was too late.  All the businesses have remained shuttered and the neighborhood is now a barrio.


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PostIcon Posted on: Jan. 23 2013, 10:48 am Skip to the previous post in this topic. Skip to the next post in this topic. Ignore posts   QUOTE

Good info
Thanks WWBF

Eventually....more people will pay attention.
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PostIcon Posted on: Jan. 23 2013, 10:56 am Skip to the previous post in this topic. Skip to the next post in this topic. Ignore posts   QUOTE

Not so very long ago, Prosecutor argued 'till he was blue in the face that climate change (global warming) would be good for the United Staes, based on a blog post passing as a study, and argued we should be encouraging it.  Anyone with active brain cells knew a bit better, but here we are. C'est la vie.

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PostIcon Posted on: Jan. 23 2013, 11:23 am Skip to the previous post in this topic. Skip to the next post in this topic. Ignore posts   QUOTE

Yeah, you can take the prosecutor out of the courtroom but you can't take the courtroom out of the prosecutor.
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PostIcon Posted on: Jan. 23 2013, 11:44 am Skip to the previous post in this topic. Skip to the next post in this topic. Ignore posts   QUOTE

Prosecuter would have defended abiogenic petroleum if that was the official party line.

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PostIcon Posted on: Jan. 23 2013, 12:25 pm Skip to the previous post in this topic. Skip to the next post in this topic. Ignore posts   QUOTE


(GoBlueHiker @ Jan. 23 2013, 10:56 am)
QUOTE
Not so very long ago, Prosecutor argued 'till he was blue in the face that climate change (global warming) would be good for the United Staes, based on a blog post passing as a study, and argued we should be encouraging it.  Anyone with active brain cells knew a bit better, but here we are. C'est la vie.

True, but playing devil's advocate, why does it appear that every single conclusion in these types of reports is negative? Surely there will be SOME positives.

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PostIcon Posted on: Jan. 23 2013, 1:32 pm Skip to the previous post in this topic. Skip to the next post in this topic. Ignore posts   QUOTE


(WalksWithBlackflies @ Jan. 23 2013, 10:25 am)
QUOTE

(GoBlueHiker @ Jan. 23 2013, 10:56 am)
QUOTE
Not so very long ago, Prosecutor argued 'till he was blue in the face that climate change (global warming) would be good for the United Staes, based on a blog post passing as a study, and argued we should be encouraging it.  Anyone with active brain cells knew a bit better, but here we are. C'est la vie.

True, but playing devil's advocate, why does it appear that every single conclusion in these types of reports is negative? Surely there will be SOME positives.

The high-level summaries outlined in the press are overwhelmingly negative.  That doesn't mean "every single conclusion in these types of reports" is.  Even the news report above does state that the Midwest in general will enjoy longer growing seasons, although that's likely to be offset by more extreme weather events and decreasing water supplies.

We as modern humans have become quite accustomed to a very stable climate (historically speaking, long term) during the Holocene epoch... i.e. the entire rapid expansion of "civilized humanity", with relatively minor adjustments along the way.  When that begins changing under our feet (or over our heads, rather), we could use such wake-up calls outlined in reports like this.  

Considering the central predictions of the major climate models a decade ago are already being proven by observations, perhaps we should pay a bit more attention to what they say about the immediate future as well.


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PostIcon Posted on: Jan. 23 2013, 1:52 pm Skip to the previous post in this topic. Skip to the next post in this topic. Ignore posts   QUOTE

Most all climate changes -- there are going to be winners and losers -- so yes, both positives and negatives.

I can see how global warming can make southern living almost intolerable -- but boost agriculture in the plains -- esp. the Canadian portion.  Imagine harvesting two or even three crops every year!  I can also see northern (Arctic) ports positively bustling -- with massive trades between us and northern Asia.

But if this round of global warming is caused or accelerated by mostly man-made factors (e.g. carbon release) -- then I find comments made by Prosecutor utterly self-centered and selfish.  Truly natural disasters -- luck of the draw -- then fine, they are beyond our control.  But man made?  I cannot imagine continuing on blithely -- screwing the island people of Maldives, etc. -- just because we won't get hurt as much (or might even benefit)!!


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PostIcon Posted on: Jan. 23 2013, 2:11 pm Skip to the previous post in this topic. Skip to the next post in this topic. Ignore posts   QUOTE

BTW (and for what it's worth), there's a small error in this bit of the Guardian story:

QUOTE
There were still unknowns though, the report conceded, especially about how the loss of sea ice in Greenland and Antarctica will affect future sea-level rise.

The reporter is referring to land ice there (glaciers and ice sheets), not sea ice.  The reporter either didn't know to distinguish the two, or made a simple typo error.


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PostIcon Posted on: Jan. 23 2013, 2:30 pm Skip to the previous post in this topic. Skip to the next post in this topic. Ignore posts   QUOTE


(GoBlueHiker @ Jan. 23 2013, 11:32 am)
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(WalksWithBlackflies @ Jan. 23 2013, 10:25 am)
QUOTE

(GoBlueHiker @ Jan. 23 2013, 10:56 am)
QUOTE
Not so very long ago, Prosecutor argued 'till he was blue in the face that climate change (global warming) would be good for the United Staes, based on a blog post passing as a study, and argued we should be encouraging it.  Anyone with active brain cells knew a bit better, but here we are. C'est la vie.

True, but playing devil's advocate, why does it appear that every single conclusion in these types of reports is negative? Surely there will be SOME positives.

The high-level summaries outlined in the press are overwhelmingly negative...

There's going to be some cost associated with changing agricultural infrastructure to say the least, plus if the new crop isn't annual, the farmer needs to wait for harvest (grapes, pecans for arid but surface irrigated systems).  The big problem I'm seeing in the southwest is dwindling water supplies.  If agricultural systems need to switch to groundwater, then there's competition among ag, industry, and residential users for aquifers which will increasingly be overdrafted (aquifer water depends on rain and surface waters for recharge).  Pretty nasty cycle if that occurs with a bidding war for the remaining water (or not, if water-thristy industries decide to move, leaving the southwest to pensioners).

Water rights lawyers and water infrastructure workers will benefit I guess, but as the surrounding forests and grasslands burn in the summer, more summer days are spent in a smokey haze.


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PostIcon Posted on: Jan. 23 2013, 2:33 pm Skip to the previous post in this topic. Skip to the next post in this topic. Ignore posts   QUOTE


(GoBlueHiker @ Jan. 23 2013, 2:11 pm)
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BTW (and for what it's worth), there's a small error in this bit of the Guardian story:

QUOTE
There were still unknowns though, the report conceded, especially about how the loss of sea ice in Greenland and Antarctica will affect future sea-level rise.

The reporter is referring to land ice there (glaciers and ice sheets), not sea ice.  The reporter either didn't know to distinguish the two, or made a simple typo error.

Pffff... how would you know? :p

Speaking of which, what were your findings regarding this past summer's data? {Sorry if you already posted and I missed it}


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PostIcon Posted on: Jan. 23 2013, 3:23 pm Skip to the previous post in this topic. Skip to the next post in this topic. Ignore posts   QUOTE


(WalksWithBlackflies @ Jan. 23 2013, 12:33 pm)
QUOTE

(GoBlueHiker @ Jan. 23 2013, 2:11 pm)
QUOTE
BTW (and for what it's worth), there's a small error in this bit of the Guardian story:

QUOTE
There were still unknowns though, the report conceded, especially about how the loss of sea ice in Greenland and Antarctica will affect future sea-level rise.

The reporter is referring to land ice there (glaciers and ice sheets), not sea ice.  The reporter either didn't know to distinguish the two, or made a simple typo error.

Pffff... how would you know? :p

Speaking of which, what were your findings regarding this past summer's data? {Sorry if you already posted and I missed it}

No, you didn't miss it.

We're in the midst of publishing a paper right now, based largely on our combined field data from last summer.  Final edits are being made before submission (and it hasn't been reviewed yet, so no specific details yet to the public).  I'm one of nine co-authors on the paper.

The basic finding (at least where we were) is that recent increasingly-severe melt summers in Greenland are starting to cause runoff in areas where melt would previously just trickle-down and refreeze in lower snow layers.  An area previously called the "percolation zone" is no longer effectively percolating.  It's just running off instead.  We know runoff was happening at our site this past summer (2012) from satellite data, and we have enough field data to make a strong case for the underlying cause.  The additional runoff caused massive record river floods through Kangerlussuaq this summer, washing out the steel-and-concrete bridge system there in mid-July.  Obviously it's important to the residents of Kangerlussuaq (Greenland's main transportation hub), but the larger story is the added runoff from Greenland as a whole with regard to global sea level.

Our current paper only makes that case for one particular drainage in Greenland though, where we have data from last spring.  Our plans this coming spring will help make the case across more of Greenland, and perhaps the whole ice sheet.  Could be big.  But that's just preliminary so far.  Assuming this coming field campaign goes well and a sizable mountain of data is collected (mostly coring and ground-penetrating radar data... I'm in charge of the radar this April/May), some of the methods therein will make my PhD dissertation.  More to come.


ETA: FWIW, my instruments failed last summer in the field, but the cause of that failure (melting out where they should've stayed buried) ended up being a far bigger story than the data those instruments were designed to collect.  Still though, I'm redesigning them and re-deploying them this spring anyway, since it's still important field data to collect in preparation for an upcoming NASA satellite mission launching in a few years.  That's a different project altogether though.


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PostIcon Posted on: Jan. 23 2013, 3:35 pm Skip to the previous post in this topic. Skip to the next post in this topic. Ignore posts   QUOTE


(SW Mtn backpacker @ Jan. 23 2013, 12:30 pm)
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The big problem I'm seeing in the southwest is dwindling water supplies.

There's a Prof in our geography department here whose focus is Western US Water Rights.  His assessment--based on what I've seen from his talks--largely agrees with that.

Water rights battles in the US won't get any prettier in years to come.


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PostIcon Posted on: Jan. 24 2013, 11:29 am Skip to the previous post in this topic. Skip to the next post in this topic. Ignore posts   QUOTE

I'm in the process of finding a retirement home. I want a small farm rich in soil and ample water supplies. Most likely will have to find it east of the Mississippi.
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PostIcon Posted on: Jan. 25 2013, 1:56 pm Skip to the previous post in this topic. Skip to the next post in this topic. Ignore posts   QUOTE

Go Blue.  You ever run into Seeta in Greenland?  She is doing soil carbon work.

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PostIcon Posted on: Jan. 25 2013, 2:28 pm Skip to the previous post in this topic. Skip to the next post in this topic. Ignore posts   QUOTE

It's interesting. The opponents to action on this matter seem to be a lot less vocal these days. I haven't heard Al Gore mentioned in ages.

It'll be interesting if we see any sort of solution. California is moving ahead with cap and trade on carbon, and RGGI is looking to revamp - but literally any attempt to act at a Federal level is being killed in the courts. I honestly see emissions caps coming as any attempt to find market-based solutions keeps getting picked apart on details in the courts.
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PostIcon Posted on: Jan. 25 2013, 2:37 pm Skip to the previous post in this topic. Skip to the next post in this topic. Ignore posts   QUOTE

You're just not hitting the "right" forums. Post this thread over here and see what happens: http://conservativepoliticalforum.com/
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(ChasWill @ Jan. 25 2013, 11:56 am)
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Go Blue.  You ever run into Seeta in Greenland?  She is doing soil carbon work.

Seeta Sistla, ecologist from UCSB?  I don't remember running into her in Greenland (not that I recall anyway).  It's a big island, I think her work is more in Northern Greenland working with the tundra soils.  Mine is out on the ice sheet in SW Greenland.  We probably haven't even been there in the same seasons, and we wouldn't be going to the same conferences/places here in the states.

So... short answer: no, I don't think I have.  If I had, it probably would have been a very brief meeting.


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The evidence just keeps piling up. It has been so hot in Australia these last few months that they have had to add another color to their temperature maps to indicate the areas where the temperature has exceeded 130° F. That certainly impacts the average that includes the 0° that I have right now. It is all about the averages, not about the extremes.

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