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Topic: Spunk< Next Oldest | Next Newest >
 Post Number: 1
Ben2World Search for posts by this member.

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PostIcon Posted on: Jan. 24 2013, 12:40 am  Skip to the next post in this topic. Ignore posts   QUOTE

North Korea.   Well, they are spunky if nothing else!

My view?  I am normally against boycotts and foreign interference.  But NK is one special case.  The world should agree on a UN resolution to STOP any and all aid -- including humanitarian aid (that government would siphon off everything for its elite and the military anyway) -- and let the regime collapse once and for all.  And the sooner, the better.

Like West Germany 20+ years ago, South Korea is now advanced and wealthy enough to reunite with its other half.  And the world will be a better place with a democratic, prosperous, and united Korea.


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The world is a book and those who do not travel read only a page.  -- St. Augustine
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PostIcon Posted on: Jan. 24 2013, 6:29 am Skip to the previous post in this topic. Skip to the next post in this topic. Ignore posts   QUOTE

My worry is that a collapsing NK will attack SK.  I suspect that the regime will not allow itself to be toppeled by the starving masses and a civil uprising could make Syria look like a walk in the park.

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PostIcon Posted on: Jan. 24 2013, 6:30 am Skip to the previous post in this topic. Skip to the next post in this topic. Ignore posts   QUOTE

It's really a sad state of affair in N. Korea....I've thought the same thing but the fact is, the regime will let the peasants starve to death.

I'd be inclined to let South Korea determine what course of action should be taken.


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For we wrestle not against flesh and blood, but against principalities, against powers, against the rulers of the darkness of this world, against spiritual wickedness in high places.
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PostIcon Posted on: Jan. 24 2013, 11:09 am Skip to the previous post in this topic. Skip to the next post in this topic. Ignore posts   QUOTE


(gunslinger @ Jan. 24 2013, 6:30 am)
QUOTE
It's really a sad state of affair in N. Korea...

It sure is.  I often wonder if they're close to the breaking point, but it even if they are, the actual collapse could happen long after it had become inevitable.

I also doubt any resolution is possible without China's acquiescence, if not their outright support.  I'm sure they'd welcome stability. I'm less sure they'd welcome a reunified Korea allied with the US, especially given their recent territorial disputes with Japan.
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PostIcon Posted on: Jan. 24 2013, 11:09 am Skip to the previous post in this topic. Skip to the next post in this topic. Ignore posts   QUOTE

Wonder how much SK would change its mind about current status quo -- if it has to shoulder the cost itself?  ???

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PostIcon Posted on: Jan. 24 2013, 11:28 am Skip to the previous post in this topic. Skip to the next post in this topic. Ignore posts   QUOTE


(Ben2World @ Jan. 24 2013, 11:09 am)
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Wonder how much SK would change its mind about current status quo -- if it has to shoulder the cost itself?  ???

The success of the German reunification provides some hope, but the North Korea seems like a bigger burden than East Germany.  There must be some fairly simple comparative analyses available using pre-unification GDP and population for the Germanies and Koreas.
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PostIcon Posted on: Jan. 24 2013, 12:11 pm Skip to the previous post in this topic. Skip to the next post in this topic. Ignore posts   QUOTE

Per The Economist:  "The World in 2013" - GDP per capita in US dollars - adjusted for purchasing power parity:

Germany - $41,550
S Korea - $33,310

W. Germany (1989):  $24,485

Offhand, I would say SK is rich enough to manage a reunification.  SK's population of 50 million souls is twice the size of NK's.


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PostIcon Posted on: Jan. 24 2013, 1:32 pm Skip to the previous post in this topic. Skip to the next post in this topic. Ignore posts   QUOTE

Those numbers don't show any drastic differences, although West Germany had about 3.75 times as many people as East Germany just before unification, so South Korea has a tougher job than West Germany did.

There is certainly strong popular sentiment in the south for reunification.   I don't know if that matters to China, though.
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PostIcon Posted on: Jan. 24 2013, 1:46 pm Skip to the previous post in this topic. Skip to the next post in this topic. Ignore posts   QUOTE


(big_load @ Jan. 24 2013, 10:32 am)
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Those numbers don't show any drastic differences, although West Germany had about 3.75 times as many people as East Germany just before unification, so South Korea has a tougher job than West Germany did.

There is certainly strong popular sentiment in the south for reunification.   I don't know if that matters to China, though.

As far as China is concerned, NK is a parasite, and an unpredictable one at that.  But China isn't too keen on an American ally extending its border (and thus American troop presence) right to its doorstep either.

But the status quo is costing everybody -- esp. the poor NK peasants.  I still believe it's better to take a short-term lump and get this thing over with.

SK wants reunification?  SK can do a lot more to placate Chinese concerns by promising US withdrawal and a nuclear-free zone.  This jives with the supposed intent of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty.  And with a unified Korea, we can cut our bills way down without undue risk.  We will still have bases in Okinawa, Japan, etc.  Heck, a unified Korea plus Japan will serve as better counterweights against China than the current situation we've got.


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PostIcon Posted on: Jan. 26 2013, 10:44 am Skip to the previous post in this topic. Skip to the next post in this topic. Ignore posts   QUOTE

I think the Chinese are concerned about the refuge problem that it could potentially be forced to absorb.

No doubt the Chinese might be uncomfortable with a democracy on it's border as well.

Ask yourself why don't the Chinese feed them?  After all, it's the Chinese that prop them up politically.

If MacArthur were alive today, would he be saying "I told you so"?


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PostIcon Posted on: Jan. 26 2013, 1:51 pm Skip to the previous post in this topic. Skip to the next post in this topic. Ignore posts   QUOTE

Good thread! It may be pointless negotiating with NK, but not so much the Chinese. It's just a set of trade offs, all of which are good for US. We withdraw troops from SK, China withdraws support for NK and let the N & S work out reunification. I know that it won't happen without pain and collapse in the N, but why should we prolong the agony and the threat to world peace. We have exceeded the diminishing returns for the Chinese and US in prolonging this conflict.

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PostIcon Posted on: Jan. 26 2013, 4:28 pm Skip to the previous post in this topic. Skip to the next post in this topic. Ignore posts   QUOTE

I'm not sure what China gets out of the relationship with North Korea any more....at one time I think they used them to say things they were to polite to say.

What is it that China gains from the relationship?


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PostIcon Posted on: Jan. 26 2013, 5:48 pm Skip to the previous post in this topic. Skip to the next post in this topic. Ignore posts   QUOTE


(gunslinger @ Jan. 26 2013, 4:28 pm)
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What is it that China gains from the relationship?

Two main things, as far as I can tell:

1. It costs less to prop them up than to deal with a collapse that would inundate them with impoverished refugees.

2. NK provides a geographical buffer from western powers.
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PostIcon Posted on: Jan. 26 2013, 6:07 pm Skip to the previous post in this topic. Skip to the next post in this topic. Ignore posts   QUOTE


(big_load @ Jan. 26 2013, 2:48 pm)
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(gunslinger @ Jan. 26 2013, 4:28 pm)
QUOTE
What is it that China gains from the relationship?

Two main things, as far as I can tell:

1. It costs less to prop them up than to deal with a collapse that would inundate them with impoverished refugees.

2. NK provides a geographical buffer from western powers.

Agree on both counts.

China would prefer two disunited Korea's than one that is unified, strong and prosperous.  China's hope is that NK will semi-liberalize just as it has -- and then NK will be an even better counterweight to SK.

But I think China is very shortsighted in this.  Better to let Korea reunify and remove the excuse for continued US presence.  Maintaining good relations with a stronger, unified Korea could prove to be the ultimate counterweight against Japan -- considering both have territorial disputes with Japan.


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PostIcon Posted on: Jan. 26 2013, 8:28 pm Skip to the previous post in this topic. Skip to the next post in this topic. Ignore posts   QUOTE

South Korea has shown that Koreans are a very industrious people. Although a unified Korea would eventually be a stronger economic competitor of China's than the South alone, wouldn't another several million producers & consumers in the North be a net gain to the region's economy and therefore good for China as well?

It may be true that China currently sees advantage in having NK as a buffer from the Western powers, but I think any sane leadership would desire an end to the militarism and catastrophic threats presnted by the current pathologically dysfunctional NK regime.

Of course, the regime in China may also feel the need to keep a modicum of cold war hostility alive to have their potentially rebellious population focused on perceived external enemies.


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PostIcon Posted on: Jan. 26 2013, 8:53 pm Skip to the previous post in this topic.  Ignore posts   QUOTE

Of course economics will win out in the end, but the remnants of cold war paranoia will be slow to dissipate. Look at how long the mistakes of the Crusades have taken to dissipate in the Middle East.

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