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Topic: Rasmussen reports, Purpose of the second< Next Oldest | Next Newest >
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PostIcon Posted on: Mar. 28 2013, 6:13 pm  Skip to the next post in this topic. Ignore posts   QUOTE

65% See Gun Rights As Protection Against Tyranny

Friday, January 18, 2013

Two-out-of-three Americans recognize that their constitutional right to own a gun was intended to ensure their freedom.


http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_....tyranny


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PostIcon Posted on: Mar. 28 2013, 9:24 pm Skip to the previous post in this topic. Skip to the next post in this topic. Ignore posts   QUOTE

And mittens will win the election with a landslide.
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PostIcon Posted on: Mar. 28 2013, 9:35 pm Skip to the previous post in this topic. Skip to the next post in this topic. Ignore posts   QUOTE

And 75% of NRA members want total background checks too!

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PostIcon Posted on: Mar. 28 2013, 10:04 pm Skip to the previous post in this topic. Skip to the next post in this topic. Ignore posts   QUOTE

LOL!! rasmussenreports

and Monte

Do you know the reputation of rasmussenreports?

Suffice to say cite any other polling outfit that gives similar polling data as
rasmussenreports


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PostIcon Posted on: Mar. 28 2013, 10:07 pm Skip to the previous post in this topic. Skip to the next post in this topic. Ignore posts   QUOTE


(Buggyboo @ Mar. 28 2013, 9:35 pm)
QUOTE
And 75% of NRA members want total background checks too!

unlike the NRA leadership

So the NRA leadership has a different view than its own members.

That tells how out of touch the NRA is


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PostIcon Posted on: Mar. 28 2013, 11:46 pm Skip to the previous post in this topic. Skip to the next post in this topic. Ignore posts   QUOTE


(Dennis The Menace @ Mar. 28 2013, 10:04 pm)
QUOTE
LOL!! rasmussenreports

and Monte

Do you know the reputation of rasmussenreports?

Suffice to say cite any other polling outfit that gives similar polling data as
rasmussenreports

Rasmussen Reports - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rasmussen_Reports
Rasmussen Reports is an American polling and media company. ..... " Rasmussen produces some of the most accurate and reliable polls in the country today." ...
History - Business model - Polling topics - Use


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PostIcon Posted on: Mar. 29 2013, 12:53 am Skip to the previous post in this topic. Skip to the next post in this topic. Ignore posts   QUOTE

LOL!!

So Monte cites the following quote
"Rasmussen produces some of the most accurate and reliable polls in the country today."


So where did it come from? From Larry Sabato who is a regular Fox contributor which just happens
to be the network Scott Rasmussen regulary appears on

The reality is that Rasmussen has a well known Republican tilt to their polls and had one of the
most UNRELIABLE polls this past election and for 2010. This should be common knowledge yet you don't
know this


From a list of 28 organizations Rasmussen came in 24th in accuracy

http://www.businessinsider.com/most-ac....2012-11

The super accurate whiz kid Nate Silver pointed out


Several polling firms got notably poor results, on the other hand. For the second consecutive
election — the same was true in 2010 — Rasmussen Reports polls had a statistical bias toward
Republicans, overestimating Mr. Romney’s performance by about four percentage points, on average.

Polls by American Research Group and Mason-Dixon also largely missed the mark. Mason-Dixon might
be given a pass since it has a decent track record over the longer term, while American Research
Group has long been unreliable.


http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012....al-race




Nate Silver pointed out in 2010


The 105 polls released in Senate and gubernatorial races by Rasmussen Reports and its subsidiary, Pulse Opinion
Research, missed the final margin between the candidates by 5.8 points, a considerably higher figure than that
achieved by most other pollsters. [bSome 13 of its polls missed by 10 or more points, including one in the Hawaii
Senate race that missed the final margin between the candidates by 40 points, the largest error ever recorded
in a general election in FiveThirtyEight’s database, which includes all polls conducted since 1998.

Moreover, Rasmussen’s polls were quite biased, overestimating the standing of the Republican candidate by almost
4 points on average. In just 12 cases, Rasmussen’s polls overestimated the margin for the Democrat by 3 or more
points. But it did so for the Republican candidate in 55 cases — that is, in more than half of the polls that it
issued.


If one focused solely on the final poll issued by Rasmussen Reports or Pulse Opinion Research in each state —
rather than including all polls within the three-week interval — it would not have made much difference. Their
average error would be 5.7 points rather than 5.8, and their average bias 3.8 points rather than 3.9.

Nor did it make much difference whether the polls were branded as Rasmussen Reports surveys, or instead, were
commissioned for Fox News by its subsidiary Pulse Opinion Research. (Both sets of surveys used an essentially
identical methodology.) Polls branded as Rasmussen Reports missed by an average of 5.9 points and had a 3.9
point bias. The polls it commissioned on behalf of Fox News had a 5.1 point error, and a 3.6 point bias.

Rasmussen’s polls have come under heavy criticism throughout this election cycle, including from FiveThirtyEight.
We have critiqued the firm for its cavalier attitude toward polling convention. Rasmussen, for instance, generally
conducts all of its interviews during a single, 4-hour window; speaks with the first person it reaches on the
phone rather than using a random selection process; does not call cellphones; does not call back respondents whom
it misses initially; and uses a computer script rather than live interviewers to conduct its surveys. These are
cost-saving measures which contribute to very low response rates and may lead to biased samples.

Rasmussen also weights their surveys based on preordained assumptions about the party identification of voters in
each state, a relatively unusual practice that many polling firms consider dubious since party identification
(unlike characteristics like age and gender) is often quite fluid.


Rasmussen’s polls — after a poor debut in 2000 in which they picked the wrong winner in 7 key states in that
year’s Presidential race — nevertheless had performed quite strongly in in 2004 and 2006. And they were about
average in 2008. But their polls were poor this year.

The discrepancies between Rasmussen Reports polls and those issued by other companies were apparent from
virtually the first day that Barack Obama took office. Rasmussen showed Barack Obama’s disapproval rating at
36 percent, for instance, just a week after his inauguration, at a point when no other pollster had that figure
higher than 20 percent.


Rasmussen Reports has rarely provided substantive responses to criticisms about its methodology. At one point,
Scott Rasmussen, president of the company, suggested that the differences it showed were due to its use of a likely
voter model. A FiveThirtyEight analysis, however, revealed that its bias was at least as strong in polls conducted
among all adults, before any model of voting likelihood had been applied.

Some of the criticisms have focused on the fact that Mr. Rasmussen is himself a conservative — the same direction in
which his polls have generally leaned — although he identifies as an independent rather than Republican. In our view,
that is somewhat beside the point. What matters, rather, is that the methodological shortcuts that the firm takes may
now be causing it to pay a price in terms of the reliability of its polling.



http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2010....trongly

&


Rasmussen polls are mostly ignored by the mainstream media. Whether it is because of Scott Rasmussen's
Republican connections, a Republican bias in 2010, or the pollster's usage of interactive voice response
instead of live interviews (which I personally think is a bogus reason for lack of attention), Rasmussen
remains polling's version of the black sheep of the family.


http://www.guardian.co.uk/comment....ublican

Here is another source that makes the same point about Rasmussen

http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2012/Info/rasmussen.html


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PostIcon Posted on: Mar. 29 2013, 1:38 am Skip to the previous post in this topic. Skip to the next post in this topic. Ignore posts   QUOTE


(Dennis The Menace @ Mar. 28 2013, 10:07 pm)
QUOTE

(Buggyboo @ Mar. 28 2013, 9:35 pm)
QUOTE
And 75% of NRA members want total background checks too!

unlike the NRA leadership

So the NRA leadership has a different view than its own members.

That tells how out of touch the NRA is

Ah hum; that was sarcasm. :D

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PostIcon Posted on: Mar. 29 2013, 1:59 am Skip to the previous post in this topic. Skip to the next post in this topic. Ignore posts   QUOTE

it would only be sarcastic if the assertion "And 75% of NRA members want total background checks too!" would be
ridiculously absurd.  So in other words you sarcasm is dependent on the assertion that 75% of NRA members want
total(that would be universal background checks) to be false.

But guess what?



A sizable 89 percent of all respondents, and 75 percent of those identified as NRA members, support universal
background checks for gun sales.



http://www.usnews.com/news....control


Today’s polls suggest almost 90% of Americans support universal background checks, including 75% of NRA members.


http://www.thehillnews.org/?p=6434


But while the NRA opposes the background check mandate, polling indicates many of its members actually support
the idea. In a recent survey from Johns Hopkins University, 89 percent of all respondents, as well as 75 percent
of those who identified themselves a NRA members, supported universal background checks for gun sales.


http://www.ibtimes.com/flashba....050280#

So obviously your sarcasm doesn't work


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PostIcon Posted on: Mar. 29 2013, 6:07 am Skip to the previous post in this topic. Skip to the next post in this topic. Ignore posts   QUOTE

Pure horse shi*!

Those are just propagandist numbers spewed into the media hopper.

NRA does not release it's internal membership polls.

Fail!


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PostIcon Posted on: Mar. 29 2013, 7:06 am Skip to the previous post in this topic. Skip to the next post in this topic. Ignore posts   QUOTE

I think the actual results were "65% see gun rights as protection against those paranoid about tyranny"
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PostIcon Posted on: Mar. 29 2013, 8:50 am Skip to the previous post in this topic. Skip to the next post in this topic. Ignore posts   QUOTE

Oh that's right Dennis. I forgot about the whole partisan thing and republicans always lie and distort the truth, and the dems posses the keys to the pearly gates meme.

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PostIcon Posted on: Mar. 29 2013, 2:11 pm Skip to the previous post in this topic. Skip to the next post in this topic. Ignore posts   QUOTE


(Buggyboo @ Mar. 29 2013, 6:07 am)
QUOTE
Pure horse shi*!

Those are just propagandist numbers spewed into the media hopper.

NRA does not release it's internal membership polls.

Fail!

LOL!! said by the guy who routinely uses and spews propaganda from some of the most
ridiculous sources around

Oh and no where in those sources did it say they rely on NRA's polls which of course
wouldn't be reliable anyway since the NRA is the ultimate organization in propaganda
and there would be no way to trust them. Beyond that you obviously don't understand how
polls work. You ask a variety of questions and once of those questions would be do
you belong to the NRA and based on that question they can now determine what % of those
polled who also said they belong to the NRA also where are in favor of background checks.
That does NOT require asking the NRA anything about its membership.

I mean did you think when polls says this % of Democrats polled believe this or this
% of Republicans polled believed this that they asked the Democratic and Republican
parties what their internal polls say on the matter? Yet another mind boggling inane
response from you.


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PostIcon Posted on: Mar. 29 2013, 2:14 pm Skip to the previous post in this topic. Skip to the next post in this topic. Ignore posts   QUOTE


(Montecresto @ Mar. 29 2013, 8:50 am)
QUOTE
Oh that's right Dennis. I forgot about the whole partisan thing and republicans always lie and distort the truth, and the dems posses the keys to the pearly gates meme.

actually monte

You demonstrated exactly what a propagandist like yourself does

You claimed  Rasmussen was accurate I then cited sources that actually went through the data
to show they are not only very inaccurate but very very often very heavily biased in favor of
Republicans were they overestimating compared to what the actual vote was. Since you're a
propagandist Monte, lack honesty and can't debate your way out of a paper bag, you spin this
as Oh that's right Dennis. I forgot about the whole partisan  thing and republicans always
lie and distort the truth, and the dems posses the keys to the  pearly gates meme


Now monte, who do you think is dumb enough to fall for this absurd transparent tactic
of yours?


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PostIcon Posted on: Mar. 29 2013, 2:42 pm Skip to the previous post in this topic. Skip to the next post in this topic. Ignore posts   QUOTE

Wrong. For every liberal source you can find critical of Rasmussen, there are conservative sources documenting their accuracies. Clearly it depends on who you ask. Partisan.

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PostIcon Posted on: Mar. 29 2013, 2:43 pm Skip to the previous post in this topic. Skip to the next post in this topic. Ignore posts   QUOTE

Yet when you "ask" the arithmetic they come up biased.




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PostIcon Posted on: Mar. 29 2013, 2:54 pm Skip to the previous post in this topic. Skip to the next post in this topic. Ignore posts   QUOTE


(Montecresto @ Mar. 29 2013, 2:42 pm)
QUOTE
Wrong. For every liberal source you can find critical of Rasmussen, there are conservative sources documenting their accuracies. Clearly it depends on who you ask. Partisan.

BS


First of all you've essentially called my sources liberal. Your proof? You obviously have no idea who Nate Silver
is even  though there is no excuse for you not knowing who is(have you been paying attention at all the 4.5
years?) even though he has probably been the most accurate analyst of polls since 2008. But I defy to show
ANY source that refutes the sources I used(oh and your poll that you originally used was recent so you should
use recent information on Rasmussen like in the last two elections).

Oh and dumbass, partisan does not mean someone who is equally critical of Republicans and Democrats.  It also
doesn't mean someone who is more critical of one side than an other. WHen are you going to learn what
basic definitions mean?


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PostIcon Posted on: Mar. 29 2013, 3:45 pm Skip to the previous post in this topic. Skip to the next post in this topic. Ignore posts   QUOTE


(Montecresto @ Mar. 29 2013, 12:42 pm)
QUOTE
Wrong. For every liberal source you can find critical of Rasmussen, there are conservative sources documenting their accuracies. Clearly it depends on who you ask. Partisan.

I'm not here to side with Dennis per se (I think he's as partisan as they come), but he's right that Rasmussen is extremely biased to the right.  If you payed attention to any of the polling from the last presidential election, Rasmussen polls had Romney ahead by 3-6% over any other mainstream poll in every state, and predicted that Romney would with the election by something like 40-60 electoral votes.  It wasn't off randomly... it was always to the right, in every poll in every state.

Of course, when the polls closed, a different story emerged, and Rasmussen polls proved to be neither accurate nor reliable.  In fact they were waaay off.  The Rasmussen errors were equally dismal in the Senate and House races.

The one-sided bias of Rasmussen polls is well known and well-documented.  It isn't an unbiased polling operation.  It's extremely far from being "one of the most accurate and reliable polls in the country today."  It was one of the least reliable of any mainstream poll in the last election.  Why it's still even considered a "mainstream" poll is beyond me.


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PostIcon Posted on: Mar. 29 2013, 3:59 pm Skip to the previous post in this topic. Skip to the next post in this topic. Ignore posts   QUOTE

GoBlueHiker

definition of partisan

": a firm adherent to a party, faction, cause, or person; especially : one exhibiting blind, prejudiced, and unreasoning allegiance "


http://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/partisan

Under that definition what "party, faction, cause, or person" do I have " blind, prejudiced, and unreasoning allegiance " to?

Obama or Democrats? If so I can and have given many times in this forum evidence where I
have criticized both plenty

I clearly am harder on Republicans and clearly don't criticize both equally but that doesn't
make someone a partisan in an of itself(see the definition above)


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PostIcon Posted on: Mar. 29 2013, 4:27 pm Skip to the previous post in this topic. Skip to the next post in this topic. Ignore posts   QUOTE

Not really interested in nitpicking with you Dennis.  Your history here is long and exhaustive for everyone to see.

FWIW, I'm agreeing with you in this thread.


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PostIcon Posted on: Mar. 29 2013, 4:41 pm Skip to the previous post in this topic. Skip to the next post in this topic. Ignore posts   QUOTE

Ya well I'm just operating on the principle that words have meaning and on that point I gave
the definition of partisan and it does have a specific meaning

Like I said I don't deny that I'm harder on Republicans than Democrats. That is beyond obvious.
But I contend that this fact alone doesn't make someone partisan according to that definition
I gave.

Thanks for the agreement on Rasmussen BTW. I mean I thought it should be common knowledge
about Rasmussen but I guess not for everyone.


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PostIcon Posted on: Mar. 29 2013, 4:44 pm Skip to the previous post in this topic.  Ignore posts   QUOTE

Fair enough.

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