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Question: Global financial meltdown: yes or no? :: Total Votes:20
Poll choices Votes Statistics
Sounds great to me! Let's not raise the debt ceiling, and default on our debt! 3  [15.00%]
What are you, nuts? Of course we don't want a global financial meltdown, so of course we need to raise the debt ceiling. 17  [85.00%]
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Topic: Global financial meltdown: yes or no?< Next Oldest | Next Newest >
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PostIcon Posted on: Oct. 14 2013, 2:04 pm  Skip to the next post in this topic. Ignore posts   QUOTE

Which would you choose?

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PostIcon Posted on: Oct. 14 2013, 2:06 pm Skip to the previous post in this topic. Skip to the next post in this topic. Ignore posts   QUOTE

As a biologist Darwin sort of scares me, so: No.

Though were one to ask whether I was all that comfortable being on the same side of things as Sen. John McCain and, gasp  Grover Norquist? Pause, I gotta admit, pause.
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PostIcon Posted on: Oct. 14 2013, 2:17 pm Skip to the previous post in this topic. Skip to the next post in this topic. Ignore posts   QUOTE


(High_Sierra_Fan @ Oct. 14 2013, 12:06 pm)
QUOTE
As a biologist Darwin sort of scares me, so: No.

Though were one to ask whether I was all that comfortable being on the same side of things as Sen. John McCain and, gasp  Grover Norquist? Pause, I gotta admit, pause.

Seems as though the apocolypse is upon us one way or the other...  ???
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PostIcon Posted on: Oct. 14 2013, 3:06 pm Skip to the previous post in this topic. Skip to the next post in this topic. Ignore posts   QUOTE

You seem to be assuming that the U.S. defaulting on loans will cause a global meltdown.

I doubt the effect would be so drastic. Just a hunch.


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PostIcon Posted on: Oct. 14 2013, 3:18 pm Skip to the previous post in this topic. Skip to the next post in this topic. Ignore posts   QUOTE


(desert dweller @ Oct. 14 2013, 3:06 pm)
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You seem to be assuming that the U.S. defaulting on loans will cause a global meltdown.

I doubt the effect would be so drastic. Just a hunch.

It could very well have that effect.  It will destabilize a slew of currencies and cause interest rates to skyrocket.  Some economists fear that  we don't have to get all the way to default for some of that effect to kick in, because the underlying near-term problem is the apparent willingness to eradicate the meaning of "full faith and credit".
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PostIcon Posted on: Oct. 14 2013, 3:30 pm Skip to the previous post in this topic. Skip to the next post in this topic. Ignore posts   QUOTE

China calls for 'de-Americanised' world economy in wake of US shutdown, debt stand-off

Handing them an argument for that on a silver platter won't be good. IMHO.
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PostIcon Posted on: Oct. 14 2013, 3:32 pm Skip to the previous post in this topic. Skip to the next post in this topic. Ignore posts   QUOTE


(desert dweller @ Oct. 14 2013, 12:06 pm)
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You seem to be assuming that the U.S. defaulting on loans will cause a global meltdown.

I doubt the effect would be so drastic. Just a hunch.

Default on loans signals the dollar is worthless, the dollar being worthless wipes out a huge percentage of all the world's wealth as the dollar is the sole world reserve currency (something China is arguing this fiasco is reason to change): that's a meltdown in any language....

Ex: How to make petroleum cost 5 times as much overnight? Have the dollar drop in value 80% due to a complete collapse of the treasury bond market because we defaulted on their interest and repurchase commitments.
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PostIcon Posted on: Oct. 14 2013, 3:38 pm Skip to the previous post in this topic. Skip to the next post in this topic. Ignore posts   QUOTE

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PostIcon Posted on: Oct. 14 2013, 3:40 pm Skip to the previous post in this topic. Skip to the next post in this topic. Ignore posts   QUOTE


(Gabby @ Oct. 14 2013, 12:38 pm)
QUOTE

Thanks for the information, so not sole but certainly largest (and IIRC the one that's used for petroleum commerce exclusively?).
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PostIcon Posted on: Oct. 14 2013, 3:44 pm Skip to the previous post in this topic. Skip to the next post in this topic. Ignore posts   QUOTE


(desert dweller @ Oct. 14 2013, 12:06 pm)
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You seem to be assuming that the U.S. defaulting on loans will cause a global meltdown.

It's not an assumption; it's a conclusion based on my own understanding of the facts, and on the analysis of experts across the political spectrum.

big_load, HSF, & Gabby all offer reasons why that's the most likely scenario. At best, complacency about debt ceiling default is an extremely risky bet with literally no upside.

ETA: Also, too: even if it didn't cause a global financial meltdown, I don't think anyone would seriously argue the point that it'll drastically weaken the US economically.


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PostIcon Posted on: Oct. 14 2013, 3:50 pm Skip to the previous post in this topic. Skip to the next post in this topic. Ignore posts   QUOTE


(TehipiteTom @ Oct. 14 2013, 12:44 pm)
QUOTE

(desert dweller @ Oct. 14 2013, 12:06 pm)
QUOTE
You seem to be assuming that the U.S. defaulting on loans will cause a global meltdown.

It's not an assumption; it's a conclusion based on my own understanding of the facts, and on the analysis of experts across the political spectrum.

big_load, HSF, & Gabby all offer reasons why that's the most likely scenario. At best, complacency about debt ceiling default is an extremely risky bet with literally no upside.

ETA: Also, too: even if it didn't cause a global financial meltdown, I don't think anyone would seriously argue the point that it'll drastically weaken the US economically.

It may be disastrous. And probably will be if it gets to that.

I guess my point was that you should have added another choice to the poll. Both your answers were absolutes. This hasn't proved to be an either/or situation.


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PostIcon Posted on: Oct. 14 2013, 3:56 pm Skip to the previous post in this topic. Skip to the next post in this topic. Ignore posts   QUOTE

That number (66%) has come down in the last 7 years, but it's still above 55%, I believe.

A thought: the right has shown a tendency to create a crisis, false or not, and then exploit the resulting chaos to attempt to gain control of government sufficiently to force introduction of their own political agenda, whether or not it makes sense in the situation. (I need only refer to Iraq for an example.)

Could the Republican/Tea Party actually be insane enough to think that crashing the world's economy would be to their benefit?
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PostIcon Posted on: Oct. 14 2013, 4:36 pm Skip to the previous post in this topic. Skip to the next post in this topic. Ignore posts   QUOTE


(desert dweller @ Oct. 14 2013, 12:50 pm)
QUOTE
I guess my point was that you should have added another choice to the poll. Both your answers were absolutes. This hasn't proved to be an either/or situation.

If it isn't either/or, then what's a plausible non-disastrous outcome of debt default? What third option do you think should be in there?

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(Gabby @ Oct. 14 2013, 12:56 pm)
QUOTE
That number (66%) has come down in the last 7 years, but it's still above 55%, I believe.

A thought: the right has shown a tendency to create a crisis, false or not, and then exploit the resulting chaos to attempt to gain control of government sufficiently to force introduction of their own political agenda, whether or not it makes sense in the situation. (I need only refer to Iraq for an example.)

Could the Republican/Tea Party actually be insane enough to think that crashing the world's economy would be to their benefit?

Their gamble is that given the choice the Obama administration wouldn't crash the world economy and would instead choose to simply gut the entitlement programs by shifting all the forced reductions necessitated to balance the government cash-flow onto the United States' ill and elderly via the hostage-taking choice of the world or the safety net. Stop paying Medicare, Medicaid and Social Security except after the federal bond indebtedness is satisfied.

Which is, by happy coincidence no doubt, The Paul Ryan Budget Wet Dream. Keep bankers happy on the backs of the ill and the old.
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PostIcon Posted on: Oct. 14 2013, 4:56 pm Skip to the previous post in this topic. Skip to the next post in this topic. Ignore posts   QUOTE


(TehipiteTom @ Oct. 14 2013, 1:36 pm)
QUOTE

(desert dweller @ Oct. 14 2013, 12:50 pm)
QUOTE
I guess my point was that you should have added another choice to the poll. Both your answers were absolutes. This hasn't proved to be an either/or situation.

If it isn't either/or, then what's a plausible non-disastrous outcome of debt default? What third option do you think should be in there?

Yes. I would consider a plausible non-disastrous outcome as a possibility.

In fact, given 10 spaces for choosing, I'd consider as many as 10 possible outcomes and let the view public decide which are most plausible. It sounds like you are creating limitations based on personal knowledge and neglecting that folks may have insight or different/more information.

No offense, of course. I just view polls with a few or a couple of choices as limited or incomplete.


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PostIcon Posted on: Oct. 14 2013, 5:23 pm Skip to the previous post in this topic. Skip to the next post in this topic. Ignore posts   QUOTE


(Gabby @ Oct. 14 2013, 12:56 pm)
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Could the Republican/Tea Party actually be insane enough to think that crashing the world's economy would be to their benefit?

Christian Reconstructionism

...the only logical explanation for all this nonsense
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PostIcon Posted on: Oct. 14 2013, 5:31 pm Skip to the previous post in this topic. Skip to the next post in this topic. Ignore posts   QUOTE

A government default would be 23 times larger than the Lehman Brothers bankruptcy that triggered the 2008 financial crisis.  

Not sure how anyone could expect this to not have a significant negative impact.
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PostIcon Posted on: Oct. 14 2013, 9:04 pm Skip to the previous post in this topic. Skip to the next post in this topic. Ignore posts   QUOTE


(desert dweller @ Oct. 14 2013, 1:56 pm)
QUOTE

(TehipiteTom @ Oct. 14 2013, 1:36 pm)
QUOTE

(desert dweller @ Oct. 14 2013, 12:50 pm)
QUOTE
I guess my point was that you should have added another choice to the poll. Both your answers were absolutes. This hasn't proved to be an either/or situation.

If it isn't either/or, then what's a plausible non-disastrous outcome of debt default? What third option do you think should be in there?

Yes. I would consider a plausible non-disastrous outcome as a possibility.

In fact, given 10 spaces for choosing, I'd consider as many as 10 possible outcomes and let the view public decide which are most plausible. It sounds like you are creating limitations based on personal knowledge and neglecting that folks may have insight or different/more information.

Well, but what I'm asking (and I am asking, it's not a rhetorical question) is what specific non-disastrous outcomes you have in mind, and how might we get there? What are these other outcomes you consider plausible?

QUOTE
No offense, of course. I just view polls with a few or a couple of choices as limited or incomplete.

None taken, of course. You're a reasonable guy, and I think we can disagree without acrimony.


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The Trilateral Commission would never allow a global financial meltdown.
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PostIcon Posted on: Oct. 14 2013, 9:55 pm Skip to the previous post in this topic. Skip to the next post in this topic. Ignore posts   QUOTE

Judging from the current results of the poll, no Tea Party folks have responded.

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The Coulda Woulda Shoulda Crowd seem really nervous..............................they are so scared nothing will happen, that they WANT something to happen..............................Nervous Ninnies all can come to Texas, I will welcome y'all with a big hug and a Miller LIte and a Pop-Tart.

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The Illuminati will not allow a meltdown.

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PostIcon Posted on: Oct. 14 2013, 10:47 pm Skip to the previous post in this topic. Skip to the next post in this topic. Ignore posts   QUOTE

I believe that within the TEA parties there are those that believe that it will result in a global financial meltdown, and that is what they want to happen. What good is a survival bunker if you don't have to use it?

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PostIcon Posted on: Oct. 15 2013, 9:08 am Skip to the previous post in this topic. Skip to the next post in this topic. Ignore posts   QUOTE

We should raise the debt ceiling. But then let's also keep spending money we don't have to ensure more deficits and create even more debt so we can have this discussion every year!!! To hell with fiscal responsibility!!!

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(WalksWithBlackflies @ Oct. 15 2013, 6:08 am)
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We should raise the debt ceiling. But then let's also keep spending money we don't have to ensure more deficits and create even more debt so we can have this discussion every year!!! To hell with fiscal responsibility!!!

Oh we've got the money, Republicans and their owners just don't want to pay the bills with it.
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(High_Sierra_Fan @ Oct. 14 2013, 2:30 pm)
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China calls for 'de-Americanised' world economy in wake of US shutdown, debt stand-off

Handing them an argument for that on a silver platter won't be good. IMHO.

Definitely agree.


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(High_Sierra_Fan @ Oct. 15 2013, 10:25 am)
QUOTE

(WalksWithBlackflies @ Oct. 15 2013, 6:08 am)
QUOTE
We should raise the debt ceiling. But then let's also keep spending money we don't have to ensure more deficits and create even more debt so we can have this discussion every year!!! To hell with fiscal responsibility!!!

Oh we've got the money, Republicans and their owners just don't want to pay the bills with it.

$150,000 Federal debt per taxpayer

Assets per citizen: $331,500
Liability per citizen: $398,000
Liability per taxpayer: $1,100,000

The Feds would need to raise income tax by $7,000 per taxpayer to balance the budget. I don't know about you, but my family can't give another $14,000 per year. And I don't see many democrat leaders jumping on that bandwagon.

It's just not sustainable. Especially with an aging population.

Our collective wants have to be tempered with our ability to fund them. Unfortunately, that discourse is missing.

http://www.usdebtclock.org/


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(WalksWithBlackflies @ Oct. 15 2013, 8:01 am)
QUOTE

(High_Sierra_Fan @ Oct. 15 2013, 10:25 am)
QUOTE

(WalksWithBlackflies @ Oct. 15 2013, 6:08 am)
QUOTE
We should raise the debt ceiling. But then let's also keep spending money we don't have to ensure more deficits and create even more debt so we can have this discussion every year!!! To hell with fiscal responsibility!!!

Oh we've got the money, Republicans and their owners just don't want to pay the bills with it.

$150,000 Federal debt per taxpayer

Assets per citizen: $331,500
Liability per citizen: $398,000
Liability per taxpayer: $1,100,000

The Feds would need to raise income tax by $7,000 per taxpayer to balance the budget. I don't know about you, but my family can't give another $14,000 per year. And I don't see many democrat leaders jumping on that bandwagon.

It's just not sustainable. Especially with an aging population.

Our collective wants have to be tempered with our ability to fund them. Unfortunately, that discourse is missing.

http://www.usdebtclock.org/

Straight line math is way overly simplistic and the debt ceiling isn't about future spending it's about past spending and paying for that past spending.

Tax rates are at Eisenhower era levels, we, as a nation, can afford more.  We'd better as our investment rate is pathetic.
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PostIcon Posted on: Oct. 15 2013, 11:17 am Skip to the previous post in this topic. Skip to the next post in this topic. Ignore posts   QUOTE

I am guessing this whole scenario is a lot like what happened in Rome as the Roman Empire declined and Roman civilization disintegrated.  Self destruction is the route to disintegration, not outside forces.  

Apparently king pin nations have a life cycle kinda like individual humans.

They get old, senile, weak and ineffectual, and then some other nation or nations become the kingpin.

But, look on the bright side!  With the decline the people had the time and interest to create Italian cooking.  And Italian cooking is a wonderful thing to enjoy.  Think I will go make some pasta sauce.

What a country!


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(WalksWithBlackflies @ Oct. 15 2013, 8:01 am)
QUOTE
It's just not sustainable. Especially with an aging population.

Our collective wants have to be tempered with our ability to fund them. Unfortunately, that discourse is missing.

You have it exactly backwards: what isn't sustainable is the steady drain of resources away from the common wealth and into private hands. We can't afford it; that way lies an impoverished, weak, and atomized society.

The individual wants of the ultra-wealthy few have to be tempered with the necessity of investing in the common wealth. Unfortunately, that discourse is missing.


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