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Topic: Gun Control Advocates Misuse Statistics, When comparing other countries to US< Next Oldest | Next Newest >
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PostIcon Posted on: May 30 2014, 2:07 am  Skip to the next post in this topic. Ignore posts   QUOTE

There are 3 ways I see statistics being misused by gun control advocates when comparing the US to countries:

1) by comparing our relatively violent culture with kinder, gentler cultures that would have lower murder rates than ours with or without their gun control---apples to oranges;

2) by ignoring the declining murder rate in the US while crediting gun control for declining murder rates in other countries over the same period; and

3) by ignoring the fact that tighter gun control has not resulted in lower murder rates in some of the countries.

Let me elaborate on each of these 3 abuses of statistics in a series of responses to this initial post. Some of these abuses are flat-out dishonesty, while others are just the result of simple thinking.

---George
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PostIcon Posted on: May 30 2014, 3:35 am Skip to the previous post in this topic. Skip to the next post in this topic. Ignore posts   QUOTE

APPLES TO ORANGES

Japanese culture is kinder and gentler than US culture, so Japan would have a lower murder rate than the US even if the US had no guns.

Our murder by stabbing, beating and whatever other non-gun methods is six times Japan's total murder rate*. We are a more violent culture.

So it is dishonest when comparing the two countries to imply that our murder rate would drop anywhere close to Japan's level if we adopted their gun control. Japan's gun control cannot honestly be given as much credit as it often is.

Iceland and Japan had the same low murder rates of 0.3 per 100,000 in 2012. While the Japanese have almost no guns, Iceland is full of guns. So it is the kinder, gentler culture in Iceland that means a low murder rate, not the absence of guns.

* The US homicide rate for 2012 was 4.8 per 100,000. The firearm homicide rate was 3.0 in 2013. The difference is 1.8 per 100,000 non-firearm homicides in the US. This is six times Japan's total homicide rate of 0.3 per 100,000.
(sources: homicide by country ; US homicide by firearm ).
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PostIcon Posted on: May 30 2014, 7:52 am Skip to the previous post in this topic. Skip to the next post in this topic. Ignore posts   QUOTE

George, assuming that rather odd theory is true, why would you want to give people more prone to violence better weapons for committing violence?
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PostIcon Posted on: May 30 2014, 8:35 am Skip to the previous post in this topic. Skip to the next post in this topic. Ignore posts   QUOTE

QUOTE
statistics being misused by gun control advocates

Statistics are misused by everyone when promoting their own agenda and denigrating their opponents.


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PostIcon Posted on: May 30 2014, 11:14 am Skip to the previous post in this topic. Skip to the next post in this topic. Ignore posts   QUOTE

What about the statistic that if you have a gun in your home you and those in your home are more likely to be the victim of gun violence than someone who does NOT have a gun in their home.

That one simple little statistic has always really stood out in my mind.

How does KNOWING you are more likely to be a victim by having a gun make you want to have a gun?  Is it just the thought that "those things" happen to other people and I am not that "other people".  I will be the person who disproves that general statistic!
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PostIcon Posted on: May 30 2014, 11:47 am Skip to the previous post in this topic. Skip to the next post in this topic. Ignore posts   QUOTE

You mean how does believing the Kellerman study affect your feelings on gun ownership

You know..Kellerman....the guy that walked back his original "results" of 43 times all the way to 22 times more likely

But of course he left all his bad methodology in place. He later admitted that in only 63% of those cases was the gun truly owned by the occupants. So now we are maybe 14 times more likely.

But what he is really stating is that you are ____times more likely to be killed than kill someone.

He sort of left out the part where you might escape harm without actually killing someone

And of course he uses suicides...but without determining if the gun was specifically bought for the suicide or was simply readily available. Because it is hard to blame the presence of the gun if the gun was only present....well...you know.

He also ignored other factors like drug and alcohol use, criminal records.

What I think we can all agree on is that if you are a young black male living in Chicago and belonging to a gang then your life expectancy is pretty sharply curtailed.

And we don't need a bunch of studies to prove that

But if you want to get further inside the K study....nice bit here

http://www.guncite.com/gun_control_gcdgaga.html


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PostIcon Posted on: May 30 2014, 12:08 pm Skip to the previous post in this topic. Skip to the next post in this topic. Ignore posts   QUOTE

APPLES TO ORANGES

Now, I'm not claiming the murder rate in the United States would not drop if all guns---from both the good and bad guys---were to magically disappear. What I'm claiming is that gun control advocates exaggerate.

Take this editorial from the New York Times (link): It simply says that Japan has strict gun laws and only had 11 gun deaths in 2008, while the United States had 12,000. This is calculated to leave the naďve reader to think it's all about the presence of guns, and the cultural differences play no part. It is a dishonest argument.

BTW, the 12,000 for 2008 is off. It was actually 9,528 homicides by firearm (source), but that doesn't really matter as the editorial's argument is disingenuous either way.
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PostIcon Posted on: May 30 2014, 12:14 pm Skip to the previous post in this topic. Skip to the next post in this topic. Ignore posts   QUOTE

When one want to discuss Gun Control all one needs to do it look at its effects on Chicago.

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PostIcon Posted on: May 30 2014, 12:25 pm Skip to the previous post in this topic. Skip to the next post in this topic. Ignore posts   QUOTE

If Japan was suddenly full of guns, would their murder rate shoot right up from 0.3 to 4.8 per 100,0000, like the US? No, because they are a gentler culture that would not pick up the guns to shoot each other. The have sharp and blunt objects to kill each other with right now, but don't use those anywhere near as often as Americans do.
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PostIcon Posted on: May 30 2014, 12:35 pm Skip to the previous post in this topic. Skip to the next post in this topic. Ignore posts   QUOTE

So is your argument that guns are no better at killing than say a knife or hammer?????

Obviously culture has a lot to do with violence.....but it would seem that the MORE violent a culture is the less they should have access to efficient killing technologies.....

I mean if all we had were our hands a rock and clubs I am sure the US could still out compete Japan with killing each other....but it just seems crazy that we should actively work harder to make it easier to hurt and kill people  ???
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PostIcon Posted on: May 30 2014, 12:41 pm Skip to the previous post in this topic. Skip to the next post in this topic. Ignore posts   QUOTE

George what are the punishments for murder in Japan though, are the deterrents in place to make doing illegal activities not so "attractive.  Isnt punishment in many of these "peaceful" nations quick and just.

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PostIcon Posted on: May 30 2014, 12:44 pm Skip to the previous post in this topic. Skip to the next post in this topic. Ignore posts   QUOTE


(JasonG75 @ May 30 2014, 12:14 pm)
QUOTE
When one want to discuss Gun Control all one needs to do it look at its effects on Chicago.

Thats a tiresome simplistic talking point because as its been pointed out time and time again
people can simply drive to another city,county or state with less restrictive gun control.


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PostIcon Posted on: May 30 2014, 12:47 pm Skip to the previous post in this topic. Skip to the next post in this topic. Ignore posts   QUOTE


(JasonG75 @ May 30 2014, 12:41 pm)
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George what are the punishments for murder in Japan though, are the deterrents in place to make doing illegal activities not so "attractive.  Isnt punishment in many of these "peaceful" nations quick and just.

What? So you're suggesting that the death penalty either isn't carried out enough or fast enough compared
to other countries and that explains the difference in murder rate?


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PostIcon Posted on: May 30 2014, 12:53 pm Skip to the previous post in this topic. Skip to the next post in this topic. Ignore posts   QUOTE

What I am saying is if we handled violent offenders quicker instead of sitting in jail for 10 15 years, not allow "LIFE"

cut hands off for theft

remove members for rape

we might curve some of this violent behavior, after all where was the violent behavior learned ?  In the home from parents.  There's a lot of generations that have to be changed


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PostIcon Posted on: May 30 2014, 1:03 pm Skip to the previous post in this topic. Skip to the next post in this topic. Ignore posts   QUOTE


(JasonG75 @ May 30 2014, 12:53 pm)
QUOTE
What I am saying is if we handled violent offenders quicker instead of sitting in jail for 10 15 years, not allow "LIFE"

cut hands off for theft

remove members for rape

we might curve some of this violent behavior, after all where was the violent behavior learned ?  In the home from parents.  There's a lot of generations that have to be changed

"cut hands off for theft"

Sounds like you want shariah law

LOL!!

Hey Jason let me clue you in on a few things. First in terms of the death penalty there are very few
countries that kill more people via the death penalty than the United States and those countries tend
to be the more unsavory types like Iran or Saudi Arabia for example. Second the reason why it might take
longer to have people killed via the death penalty is we want to avoid the possibility of killing people
were actually innocent. The longer times works as an added check.


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PostIcon Posted on: May 30 2014, 1:08 pm Skip to the previous post in this topic. Skip to the next post in this topic. Ignore posts   QUOTE

Oh and as far as shortening the times of putting someone to death and how that might lower the murder rate.
Well if that is true it at least seem to also be true that states with the death penalty should have a lower
murder rates but that is not true. Some graphs on this.





http://www.deathpenaltyinfo.org/deterre....r-rates

Granted, obviously, there are many variables that go into what the murder rate would be but still there
certainly does seem to be some consistency in those graphs


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PostIcon Posted on: May 30 2014, 1:12 pm Skip to the previous post in this topic. Skip to the next post in this topic. Ignore posts   QUOTE


(Dennis The Menace @ May 30 2014, 1:03 pm)
QUOTE
Second the reason why it might take longer to have people killed via the death penalty is we want to avoid the possibility of killing people
were actually innocent. The longer times works as an added check.

How is that working for James Holmes ?

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PostIcon Posted on: May 30 2014, 1:17 pm Skip to the previous post in this topic. Skip to the next post in this topic. Ignore posts   QUOTE


(JasonG75 @ May 30 2014, 1:12 pm)
QUOTE

(Dennis The Menace @ May 30 2014, 1:03 pm)
QUOTE
Second the reason why it might take longer to have people killed via the death penalty is we want to avoid the possibility of killing people
were actually innocent. The longer times works as an added check.

How is that working for James Holmes ?

So how does bringing up James Holes refute idea that we take longer in putting people to death to
avoid the possibility that we put to death innocent people?

Also why don't you show any evidence that shortening the time people on death row would decrease the
murder rate? Seems like an absurd assumption


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PostIcon Posted on: May 30 2014, 1:21 pm Skip to the previous post in this topic. Skip to the next post in this topic. Ignore posts   QUOTE


(JasonG75 @ May 30 2014, 9:14 am)
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When one want to discuss Gun Control all one needs to do it look at its effects on Chicago.

Rather than New York City?
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PostIcon Posted on: May 30 2014, 1:21 pm Skip to the previous post in this topic. Skip to the next post in this topic. Ignore posts   QUOTE

Punishment should be swift.

once the criminals learn that they wont be sitting up in some jail working on their pecs and eating 4 squares a day they might think twice.  It wont happen over night nor over the next decade.  This type of mindset change requires a generation


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PostIcon Posted on: May 30 2014, 1:23 pm Skip to the previous post in this topic. Skip to the next post in this topic. Ignore posts   QUOTE


(High_Sierra_Fan @ May 30 2014, 1:21 pm)
QUOTE

(JasonG75 @ May 30 2014, 9:14 am)
QUOTE
When one want to discuss Gun Control all one needs to do it look at its effects on Chicago.

Rather than New York City?

I loved NY law on stop and frisk, that is one "nanny" state that atleast got the Gun portion under control

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PostIcon Posted on: May 30 2014, 1:23 pm Skip to the previous post in this topic. Skip to the next post in this topic. Ignore posts   QUOTE


(JasonG75 @ May 30 2014, 1:21 pm)
QUOTE
Punishment should be swift.

once the criminals learn that they wont be sitting up in some jail working on their pecs and eating 4 squares a day they might think twice.  It wont happen over night nor over the next decade.  This type of mindset change requires a generation

This is simply an emotional response from you devoid of evidence.


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PostIcon Posted on: May 30 2014, 1:25 pm Skip to the previous post in this topic. Skip to the next post in this topic. Ignore posts   QUOTE


(JasonG75 @ May 30 2014, 1:23 pm)
QUOTE

(High_Sierra_Fan @ May 30 2014, 1:21 pm)
QUOTE

(JasonG75 @ May 30 2014, 9:14 am)
QUOTE
When one want to discuss Gun Control all one needs to do it look at its effects on Chicago.

Rather than New York City?

I loved NY law on stop and frisk, that is one "nanny" state that atleast got the Gun portion under control

Ah "nanny state"

So you're a believer of small "limited" government eh?


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PostIcon Posted on: May 30 2014, 1:29 pm Skip to the previous post in this topic. Skip to the next post in this topic. Ignore posts   QUOTE


(Dennis The Menace @ May 30 2014, 1:25 pm)
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So you're a believer of small "limited" government eh?

and your Canadian so whats your point LOL

Conservative, if that is for "small "limited" government"


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PostIcon Posted on: May 30 2014, 1:38 pm Skip to the previous post in this topic. Skip to the next post in this topic. Ignore posts   QUOTE


(JasonG75 @ May 30 2014, 1:29 pm)
QUOTE

(Dennis The Menace @ May 30 2014, 1:25 pm)
QUOTE
So you're a believer of small "limited" government eh?

and your Canadian so whats your point LOL

Conservative, if that is for "small "limited" government"

Well actually I'm not Canadian(not sure where you go that idea)

If conservative is for "small" "limited" government"?

So according to you there is some dispute if conservatives are for "small" "small" government"?
I actually do think there is some dispute but I want to know if you're for small "limited goverment"
and for some reason you're hesitant to answer that directly. I wonder why.

Edit: Ok now I see it. The "eh". HAHAHA


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PostIcon Posted on: May 30 2014, 1:49 pm Skip to the previous post in this topic. Skip to the next post in this topic. Ignore posts   QUOTE

I am all for limited government

and its a stereotypical answer for the use of the word EH



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PostIcon Posted on: May 30 2014, 1:52 pm Skip to the previous post in this topic. Skip to the next post in this topic. Ignore posts   QUOTE

Hoser!
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PostIcon Posted on: May 30 2014, 1:54 pm Skip to the previous post in this topic. Skip to the next post in this topic. Ignore posts   QUOTE


(JasonG75 @ May 30 2014, 1:49 pm)
QUOTE
I am all for limited government

and its a stereotypical answer for the use of the word EH


So you're supposedly for "limited government" yet you trust the government enough that
they will not accidentally kill an innocent person or maybe you just don't care if the
government accidentally kill an innocent person?

Either way is it really consistent for a small "limited government" conservative to be
gun ho for the death penalty? Maybe you're not really the small "limited government"
conservative you think you are.

Oh and I guess you missed at the bottom my
"Edit: Ok now I see it. The "eh". HAHAHA" response


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PostIcon Posted on: May 30 2014, 2:11 pm Skip to the previous post in this topic. Skip to the next post in this topic. Ignore posts   QUOTE

I did miss it... Sorry and I am glad it made you chuckle a little.  I know you dont know me nor do I know you.  I do not take politics seriously anymore and for the most part I could care less.  Because (I hate this phrase btw) at the end of the day the politicians are walking home with a pocket full of money while I am trying to pull my pants up.

Do I believe that if you work hard and apply yourself that you can achieve whatever you wish.  YES....Do I love my Flag, damn straight I do ! Would I do whatever I could to help a man or woman that fought for my rights, yeap ! Are there a bunch of lazy, scums sucking up most of America's resources, 47% em

I am a middle class working Scout Leader with 3 kids and an awesome liberal wife, despite her obvious flaws I still love her. !!!  lol


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PostIcon Posted on: May 30 2014, 2:37 pm Skip to the previous post in this topic.  Ignore posts   QUOTE


(JasonG75 @ May 30 2014, 2:11 pm)
QUOTE
I did miss it... Sorry and I am glad it made you chuckle a little.  I know you dont know me nor do I know you.  I do not take politics seriously anymore and for the most part I could care less.  Because (I hate this phrase btw) at the end of the day the politicians are walking home with a pocket full of money while I am trying to pull my pants up.

Do I believe that if you work hard and apply yourself that you can achieve whatever you wish.  YES....Do I love my Flag, damn straight I do ! Would I do whatever I could to help a man or woman that fought for my rights, yeap ! Are there a bunch of lazy, scums sucking up most of America's resources, 47% em

I am a middle class working Scout Leader with 3 kids and an awesome liberal wife, despite her obvious flaws I still love her. !!!  lol

WOW!!! You think 47% of Americans are "Are there a bunch of lazy, scums sucking up most of
America's resources,"? Where did you get that number from? That is almost half the population.
Did you get that directly from Romney? That number just so happens to be those who don't make
enough to pay federal taxes but still pay sales taxes and payrool taxes.

Oh and I don't believe people can achieve anything they want simply by hard work even though
clearly working hard will increase your chances of achieving anything you want but certainly
isn't even close to a guarantee. If it were true that all that was needed to achieve anything
anyone wanted then anyone could get a Nobel Prize in Physics if they simply worked hard, Anyone
could win the Fields medal in Mathematics if they simply worked hard, Anyone could become a
chess Grandmaster if they simply worked hard , anyone could throw a baseball over a 100 MPH
if they simply worked hard, Anyone could deadlift over 1000 pounds if they simply worked hard,
etc... etc.. That clearly is NOT true and is quite delusional in fact.

But the main thing is your 47% comment which is truly an outrageous statement.

None of that addressed the inconsistency between claiming you're for small "limited government"
and being so gun ho for the death penalty


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