SUBSCRIBE | NEWSLETTERS | MAPS | VIDEOS | BLOGS | MARKETPLACE | CONTESTS
TRY BACKPACKER FREE!
SUBSCRIBE NOW and get
2 Free Issues and 3 Free Gifts!
Full Name:
Address 1:
Address 2:
City:
State:
Zip Code:
Email: (required)
If I like it and decide to continue, I'll pay just $12.00, and receive a full one-year subscription (9 issues in all), a 73% savings off the newsstand price! If for any reason I decide not to continue, I'll write "cancel" on the invoice and owe nothing.
Your subscription includes 3 FREE downloadable booklets.
Or click here to pay now and get 2 extra issues
Offer valid in US only.


» Welcome Guest
[ Log In :: Register ]

 

[ Track This Topic :: Email This Topic :: Print this topic ]

reply to topic new topic new poll
Topic: Comet ISON has erupted !< Next Oldest | Next Newest >
 Post Number: 1
swimswithtrout Search for posts by this member.

Avatar



Group: Members
Posts: 8013
Joined: Jan. 2005
PostIcon Posted on: Nov. 16 2013, 12:30 am  Skip to the next post in this topic. Ignore posts   QUOTE

From Space Weather.com



--------------
Want to see The Wind River Range in widescreen 1080p ?
Offline
Top of Page Profile Contact Info 
 Post Number: 2
big_load Search for posts by this member.

Avatar



Group: Members
Posts: 24023
Joined: Jun. 2004
PostIcon Posted on: Nov. 16 2013, 1:17 am Skip to the previous post in this topic. Skip to the next post in this topic. Ignore posts   QUOTE

Hey, that's no fair!  They used a super giant sensor and weren't shooting through the atmosphere.
Offline
Top of Page Profile Contact Info 
 Post Number: 3
swimswithtrout Search for posts by this member.

Avatar



Group: Members
Posts: 8013
Joined: Jan. 2005
PostIcon Posted on: Nov. 16 2013, 1:30 am Skip to the previous post in this topic. Skip to the next post in this topic. Ignore posts   QUOTE


(big_load @ Nov. 15 2013, 11:17 pm)
QUOTE
Hey, that's no fair!  They used a super giant sensor and weren't shooting through the atmosphere.

Umm, ground based image from an amateur astronomer in England.

Damian Peach


--------------
Want to see The Wind River Range in widescreen 1080p ?
Offline
Top of Page Profile Contact Info 
 Post Number: 4
TravisNWood Search for posts by this member.
W Y O M I N G
Avatar



Group: Members
Posts: 16715
Joined: Apr. 2006
PostIcon Posted on: Nov. 16 2013, 7:18 am Skip to the previous post in this topic. Skip to the next post in this topic. Ignore posts   QUOTE

In September 2012, Astronomy Now reported predictions that ISON would be "far brighter than the full moon" by November 28th.

In January 2013, The Week made similar predictions, writing, "It has the potential to go down as the brightest comet ever — and could briefly outshine even the moon. . . . At the very least, it will be about as bright as Venus. . . ."

Other sources chimed in with "brighter than a full moon" and "the comet of the century" and "By late November . . . [ISON's] tail could stretch like a searchlight into the sky above the horizon." See attached illustration below.

New Scientist wrote, "Supercomet to outshine the moon" even in daylight.

Even Time Magazine was caught up in the enthusiasm, but with the caveat,
    "Back in the 1970’s, Comet Kohoutek was billed as the “Comet of the Century,” but it turned out to be so disappointing that it ended up as a laugh line for Johnny Carson on the Tonight Show. Even a well-known comet like Halley’s, whose 1986 appearance was ballyhooed years in advance, can turn out to be a dud."
So far, ISON is looking like the Comet Apocalypse that didn't happen. It still has 12 days to live up to predictions. But all the extravagant verbiage after the fact from excited "amateur astronomers" isn't going to make ISON what it never was.


Attached Image
Attached Image

--------------
Location — Wyoming
Webpages — Cloud Peak Wilderness Maps — Rocky Mountain Wildlife
Photos — Bighorn Mountains — Wyoming Steppes
Offline
Top of Page Profile Contact Info WEB 
 Post Number: 5
TravisNWood Search for posts by this member.
W Y O M I N G
Avatar



Group: Members
Posts: 16715
Joined: Apr. 2006
PostIcon Posted on: Nov. 16 2013, 7:40 am Skip to the previous post in this topic. Skip to the next post in this topic. Ignore posts   QUOTE

I was just outside viewing Spica in the constellation Virgo. ISON should be right there above Spica about 3½° in altitude. But ISON doesn't amount to even a dim speck of light.

--------------
Location — Wyoming
Webpages — Cloud Peak Wilderness Maps — Rocky Mountain Wildlife
Photos — Bighorn Mountains — Wyoming Steppes
Offline
Top of Page Profile Contact Info WEB 
 Post Number: 6
swimswithtrout Search for posts by this member.

Avatar



Group: Members
Posts: 8013
Joined: Jan. 2005
PostIcon Posted on: Nov. 16 2013, 11:42 pm Skip to the previous post in this topic. Skip to the next post in this topic. Ignore posts   QUOTE


(TravisNWood @ Nov. 16 2013, 5:40 am)
QUOTE
I was just outside viewing Spica in the constellation Virgo. ISON should be right there above Spica about 3½° in altitude. But ISON doesn't amount to even a dim speck of light.


You've really turned into quite the curmudgeon of late, Travis !

It has brightened by 10x's in 3 days, jumping from a faint binocular object to barely naked eye visibility, will the trend continue ? An astronomer following the light curve of ISON a month ago predicted the nucleus had already shattered and ISON would vaporize into nothing but a huge ghostly tail during it's grazing passage. Could this be a sign of that ?  

Nobody, not even you, can predict what will happen to ISON next.

In any event, I never claimed ISON was going to live up to the early hype. That was already well known 4-5 months ago when the the light curve had flattened.

So what if it's not as bright as the moon ? The details in the tail, in the photo I posted, are beautiful, whether 5.5 mag or - 10.

Here's another one from Space Weather.com taken this morning, when you said ISON was unimpressive to your eye.

The tail is now 3.5 degrees long, that's the visual size of 7 lunar diameters, or 3/4 the distance between Merak and Dubhe in Ursa Major. (If you need me translate that for you, that's the size of seven full moons or 3/4 of the distance between "The Pointers" in the bowl of the Big Dipper.)



--------------
Want to see The Wind River Range in widescreen 1080p ?
Offline
Top of Page Profile Contact Info 
 Post Number: 7
swimswithtrout Search for posts by this member.

Avatar



Group: Members
Posts: 8013
Joined: Jan. 2005
PostIcon Posted on: Nov. 17 2013, 12:09 am Skip to the previous post in this topic. Skip to the next post in this topic. Ignore posts   QUOTE

Travis, here's a photo of a comet I took in 1970, from my light polluted backyard, in a Chicago suburb. It was taken with the first 35mm camera I "owned", a camera my Grandfather gave me, an original Kodak Rangefinder35 "special" built in 1947, with the 51mm/ f3.5 lens. ( It was the first 35 mm camera built in the USA,  I'm sure you know that as well.)

10 min exposure on Tri-X developed and printed by moi, in my "under the basement stairs" darkroom.

I'll leave it to you to ponder the details of how a HS freshman in 1970, an avid amateur astronomer, (to this day) could take this photo of a comet of roughly the same brightness and tail length that ISON was this morning ...



--------------
Want to see The Wind River Range in widescreen 1080p ?
Offline
Top of Page Profile Contact Info 
 Post Number: 8
TravisNWood Search for posts by this member.
W Y O M I N G
Avatar



Group: Members
Posts: 16715
Joined: Apr. 2006
PostIcon Posted on: Nov. 17 2013, 1:19 am Skip to the previous post in this topic. Skip to the next post in this topic. Ignore posts   QUOTE

SWT, you talk more like a salesman than a scientist. We'll see what you are selling on November 28th.

--------------
Location — Wyoming
Webpages — Cloud Peak Wilderness Maps — Rocky Mountain Wildlife
Photos — Bighorn Mountains — Wyoming Steppes
Offline
Top of Page Profile Contact Info WEB 
 Post Number: 9
swimswithtrout Search for posts by this member.

Avatar



Group: Members
Posts: 8013
Joined: Jan. 2005
PostIcon Posted on: Nov. 18 2013, 12:27 am Skip to the previous post in this topic. Skip to the next post in this topic. Ignore posts   QUOTE


(TravisNWood @ Nov. 16 2013, 11:19 pm)
QUOTE
SWT, you talk more like a salesman than a scientist. We'll see what you are selling on November 28th.

You're really getting senile before your age; do you have early onset Alzheimer's ?

I've already said it was well known and documented 4-6 months ago that ISON wouldn't live up to the hype.

There is a 2-3 month old, well published scientific study, that I'm sure you've already read, that reports that the nucleus /tail disjunction is a sign of disintegration, and the ultimate destruction of the comet before it ever rounds the sun, but in the past few days, the author has retracted his predictions and says the nucleus is still intact.

I'm not selling anything. You're the one pressing your point. It's an extremely beautiful comet right now, and will only get better.

I really feel sorry for you, that you can't appreciate the details in the night sky, large or small.

For further reading , try

ISON peaks at - 4 mag

ISON is not a Comet

The end of the world


--------------
Want to see The Wind River Range in widescreen 1080p ?
Offline
Top of Page Profile Contact Info 
 Post Number: 10
TravisNWood Search for posts by this member.
W Y O M I N G
Avatar



Group: Members
Posts: 16715
Joined: Apr. 2006
PostIcon Posted on: Nov. 18 2013, 12:58 am Skip to the previous post in this topic. Skip to the next post in this topic. Ignore posts   QUOTE


(swimswithtrout @ Nov. 17 2013, 10:27 pm)
QUOTE

(TravisNWood @ Nov. 16 2013, 11:19 pm)
QUOTE
SWT, you talk more like a salesman than a scientist. We'll see what you are selling on November 28th.

. . . I've already said it was well known and documented 4-6 months ago that ISON wouldn't live up to the hype. . . .

Overlooking your nonsense before and after the quoted statement, you obviously did not read the study you linked. It was not "well-known" that ISON would not be brighter than the full moon. The very link you cited claimed it was still highly probable.

That study says:
    "It [ISON] has been increasing in brightness at a rate R+4.35 and if it were to continue at this rate , it would certainly attain a magnitude much brighter than the full moon. However we will show that this possibility has only a 75% chance of being correct. There is a 25% probability that the comet will exhibit a SD event and attain a much smaller brightness."
It's little wonder the author retracted his statement. What you call "well known" is directly contradicted by his study's claim that there was still a 3 out of 4 chance that ISON would be brighter than the full moon.

Now suppose someone told you that in late November there was still a 75% probability that  a luminescent white elephant would appear in your backyard. But in late November you have to use floodlights to find a small gray mouse — not a bright white elephant dazzling the night skies, but a tiny dull mouse. You mean you don't think that is worth commenting on?

Instead, you are going to badmouth and insult anyone who reminds folks that it was not a little mouse that was predicted. It was a bright white elephant. Hey guy, I'm not so senile that I can't remember that even your retracted study predicted a bright white elephant was the most probable event.  :laugh:


--------------
Location — Wyoming
Webpages — Cloud Peak Wilderness Maps — Rocky Mountain Wildlife
Photos — Bighorn Mountains — Wyoming Steppes
Offline
Top of Page Profile Contact Info WEB 
 Post Number: 11
Lamebeaver Search for posts by this member.
trail? I don't need no stinkin trail!
Avatar



Group: Members
Posts: 19508
Joined: Aug. 2004
PostIcon Posted on: Nov. 18 2013, 7:15 am Skip to the previous post in this topic.  Ignore posts   QUOTE

I'd be happy just to see the darn thing.  I can say right now that it's not brighter than the full moon, which washes out everything except the brightest stars in the sky.
Offline
Top of Page Profile Contact Info 
10 replies since Nov. 16 2013, 12:30 am < Next Oldest | Next Newest >

[ Track This Topic :: Email This Topic :: Print this topic ]


 
reply to topic new topic new poll

» Quick Reply Comet ISON has erupted !
iB Code Buttons
You are posting as:

Do you wish to enable your signature for this post?
Do you wish to enable emoticons for this post?
Track this topic
View All Emoticons
View iB Code



Get 2 FREE Trial Issues and 3 FREE GIFTS
Survival Skills 101 • Eat Better
The Best Trails in America
YES! Please send me my FREE trial issues of Backpacker
and my 3 FREE downloadable booklets.
Full Name:
City:
Address 1:
Zip Code:
State:
Address 2:
Email (required):
Free trial offer valid for US subscribers only. Canadian subscriptions | International subscriptions